MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | April 16
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Miami is playing .500 ball with an 8-8 record, and the offense has scored a respectable 69 runs, rating in the middle of the pack. However, when looking at the projected lineup, it is getting by on smoke and mirrors in the form of timely hitting and stolen bases. Matt Mervis has five of the teams 11 home runs, with Xavier Edwards, Otto Lopez, Kyle Stowers and Griffin Conine scoring over half of the runs. Jesus Sanchez saw his first action of the season yesterday, so that should help take one hole out of the lineup. However, there really are no top prospects to highlight, with Conine mostly getting by on name recognition. Edwards, Lopez and Sanchez are legit MLB talents, but it would be a surprise to see any be an All-Star.
Eric Wagaman is basically a real-life Crash Davis, toiling in the minors since 2017 with the Yankees and Angels before getting released after 18 games in The Show with Anaheim last season. Miami picked him up off the scrap heap, and now he is hitting the middle of the order. Connor Norby is the true youngster of note, though he is on the injured list.
Back to Pfaadt, we did pick on him a few times over the last two seasons, and we probably will again this year when he is facing the Dodgers or Padres. He has shown he can handle the weaker teams, averaging almost a strikeout per inning, but home runs are his Achilles heel. While that isn’t likely to be a major worry when facing the Marlins, it will be against the elite offenses in the league.
The 26-year-old was a top prospect in the Los Angeles organization, and he has 35 starts under his belt. Typically, he does not work deep into games, but he does have some strikeout upside with 8.53 per nine innings across his 180.1 career frames. Across three Triple-A outings, he recorded 78, 91 and 55 pitches, ceding one home run, three earned runs and an unsightly 11 walks in his dozen innings. Going against the Rockies is a soft landing spot for a first start, plus the discounted salary is appealing. Expect something in the 80- to 85-pitch range, which may get him through five innings and in line to earn a potential victory if he gets early run support.
If Miller gains too much traction with The Masses, RHP Osvaldo Bido is in Chicago going against the White Sox. The Pale Hose have Andrew Benintendi, Mike Tauchman and Josh Rojas on the injured list, which may not seem like a big deal, but to this team it is three of their better batsmen. If Bido can mitigate the likes of Luis Robert Jr. and Andrew Vaughn (both are off to slow starts), he could do just enough to post a relevant fantasy score, particularly if his offense can get to RHP Jonathan Cannon, who has been handing out walks and home runs like they are candy this season.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Los Angeles Angels
Texas does not have much invested in Corbin, signing him to a one-year, $1.1 million deal in March. Last season, Corbin was the sixth-highest-paid starting pitcher, receiving $35.4 million in the final installment of his mega-deal with the Washington Nationals.
Batters swinging the stick from the right side of the plate are the bane of Corbin’s existence, and Los Angeles is likely putting out an entire lineup of opposite-handed hitters.
Texas does not have much invested in Corbin, signing him to a one-year, $1.1 million deal in March. Last season, Corbin was the sixth-highest paid starting pitcher, receiving $35.4 million in the final installment of his mega-deal with the Washington Nationals.
Batters swinging the stick from the right side of the plate are the bane of Corbin’s existence, with Los Angeles likely putting out an entire lineup of opposite-handed hitters.
New Angel Jorge Soler profiles well against southpaws, with a .380 wOBA and .231 ISO in his last 161 such plate appearances. Mike Trout is one of the best hitters of all-time, with a sublime success rate against lefties. Taylor Ward has pop at the top of the order, and catcher Logan O’Hoppe helps to fill out the backstop requirement on DraftKings and Yahoo.
Switch-hitter Luis Rengifo should at least make contact, and he has a chance to poke the ball out of the infield. From the bottom of the order, Jo Adell has a strong probability for an extra-base hit and potentially a home run, with young Kyren Paris not far behind. Texas did use four relievers on Tuesday, but the rest of the bullpen is pretty fresh, so the team does not need to suffer long with Corbin, depending on the whims of manager Bruce Bochy. Of course, the typical Ranger reliever is around league average, so that does not necessarily mean the end of the party when Corbin heads for the clubhouse.
Main Slate Contrarian Target: Baltimore Orioles
Tonight they continue their series in Cincinnati’s Great American SMALLpark, which is one of the best offensive environments, aside from Coors Field. Game-time temperatures will be sliding through the upper 50s, though there is a slight 6 to 10 mph breeze out to center field. Losing leadoff man Victor Robles is a knock against the Seattle lineup, with the longtime Washington National surprisingly finding and sustaining success with the Mariners after being claimed off waivers. Despite playing only 77 games for Seattle, he was second on the team with 30 stolen bases and had a trio of thefts before suffering a shoulder injury making a defensive play.
Switch-hitting catcher Cal Raleigh is a nice source of power, as is Luke Raley when he has the platoon advantage. Julio Rodriguez, Jorge Polanco and Randy Arozarena are the best way to round out full stacks, with Rowdy Tellez and J.P. Crawford potential differentiation plays from the bottom of the order.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
If you’re serious about making sharp MLB DFS picks, you already know that long-term success starts with using the right tools. The same approach applies to sports betting — and that’s where Portfolio EV shines.
Take Bailey Falter’s under on 4.5 strikeouts today, for example. This is a +EV bet, meaning it has positive expected value based on the best odds available. But smart betting with Portfolio EV isn’t about chasing isolated plays; it’s about consistently firing off a high volume of +EV wagers. With the Mass Entry tool, you can scale your action and let the math compound your edge over time.
Just like one DFS lineup won’t guarantee a takedown, one bet won’t define your night — it’s the consistent process that leads to profit.
Portfolio EV is built for bettors who want to win over the long haul. By identifying market inefficiencies, the best available odds and stacking a portfolio of +EV bets, it sets you up for compounding returns over time. This isn’t about chasing hot streaks — it’s about trusting the numbers and executing a smart, consistent and scalable strategy to beat the books.
The projected lineup for Washington has a low 19.0% strikeout rate against left-handed hurlers since the start of last season, with only Nathaniel Lowe and young Dylan Crews whiffing at an above-league-average rate. This season Falter has four, five and four strikeouts, and last year he had five or more strikeouts nine times in 28 (32%) starts, landing on exactly four three times. This wager is likely to come down to the wire, but the math is on our side.
