MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Sept. 18
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
This is his 12th MLB campaign and after 307 mound outings, he has a 3.50 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. This year he is a little above those pristine career rates, with a 3.75 ERA that ranks 32nd among qualified starters, while his 1.07 WHIP is the eighth best in the league. Looking at his advanced metrics, we can see he has actually been a little unlucky with a 3.71 xERA, 3.21 FIP and 2.83 xFIP.
Gray has 10.92 strikeouts per nine this season, which is the second-highest rate of his career while trailing only LHP Chris Sale (11.42) and RHP Dylan Cease (10.99) in the rankings.
Pittsburgh has been scuffling at the plate with only 21 runs in the last over the last eight games for a dreadful 2.63 average. Youngsters Nick Yorke was just called up, and he has three career plate appearances in The Show, while fellow rookie Billy Cook has 20. The projected lineup for the Pirates has a 26.7% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season, barely showing power with a .111 ISO.
Cortes makes sense on FanDuel, where he is $1,100 cheaper than Quintana, though his elder has the more favorable salary on DraftKings and Yahoo, shaping up as a strong SP2 option.
Quintana has 6.91 strikeouts per nine innings, well below his 7.88 career mark, and it is the lowest since his rookie season back in 2012. Across his last 10 games, he has had two meltdowns, giving up seven runs to Baltimore and five to Seattle. On the flipside, he has held the opposition to three or fewer runs in seven of the 10 games in this timeframe.
Over the last nine games, the Nationals have found it difficult to put runners across the plate, averaging just three per game. This series in pitching-friendly Citi Field, LHP Sean Manaea had seven innings of one-run ball, while RHP Tylor Megill had six solid innings last night, ceding one unearned run.
Though the Nats limit strikeouts, with their projected lineup whiffing only 16.5% of the time against southpaws this season, the team has a sub-.100 ISO. Youngsters Dylan Crews, Juan Yepez and Andres Chaparro have the “best” numbers against lefties, but they do not even have 175 combined career plate appearances. Similarly, James Wood, Jose Tena and Nasim Nunez are in the same boat, with barely 150 themselves. Welcome to late-season MLB DFS.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: St. Louis Cardinals
Woodford reached Triple-A in 2019 and saw action in The Show during the 2020 season when MiLB play was suspended.
Most of his work over the next four seasons was as a reliever, with few strikeouts and below-replacement-level production.
After being released at the end of the 2023 season, Woodford signed with the Chicago White Sox, getting called up to replace Mike Clevinger. In his two starts, he was tagged for 10 runs across 8.1 innings and then was designated for assignment after his second debacle. Quickly clearing waivers, he signed a minor league deal with Pittsburgh, which brings us to today.
In his six outings with Pittsburgh, he has a 6.95 ERA, 4.49 FIP and 4.51 xFIP across 22 innings. Though he has just three home runs and four walks in this period, he also has only 14 strikeouts. There is a chance someone like RHP Carmen Mlodzinski or another pitcher will act as an opener, but that should not really dissuade anyone from rolling with the Redbirds.
It is important to note that St. Louis is all but eliminated from the playoffs, with a sub-1% chance of reaching the postseason. The team has been putting out a lot of prospects and moving other young players into prominent spots in the batting order.
Lars Nootbaar, Alec Burleson, Brendon Donovan and Jordan Walker should all be in the lineup. It would not be a surprise for Paul Goldschmidt (37 years old) and Nolan Arenado (33 years old) to start getting some days off down the stretch. This is still a lineup to target, though the more prominent names are sliding into the background. Catcher Willson Contreras has now been ruled out for the rest of the season after missing the last 20 games with a fractured middle finger on his right hand.
Main Slate Secondary Target: Atlanta Braves
Cincinnati is LHP Jacob Junis’ third organization in the last two seasons. Last year he wrapped up his second season with San Francisco, ultimately signing with Milwaukee during the winter. He landed on the injured list after one start, then was actually hospitalized after getting hit in the neck with a batting practice ball. After returning to the mound in late-June, Junis worked mostly as a reliever, being traded to Cincinnati for cash considerations at the deadline. Shout out to the 31-year-old veteran, who has collected nearly $8 million in paychecks during this timeframe.
Junis has a long history of being a fly ball pitcher with particular issues against right-handed power. That is not going to serve him well in the Great American SMALLpark, which is where this game is being played tonight.
Cutting to the chase, the trio to target from the jump will be righties Marcell Ozuna, Jorge Soler and whoever is behind the plate in Sean Murphy or Travis d’Arnaud. Ramon Laureano should be near the heart of the order, and he can still get it done when holding the platoon advantage. Finally, Matt Olson and shortstop Orlando Arcia can be used to augment full stacks, with the latter able to make noise against lefties and the former more than capable of crushing offerings from same-handed hurlers.
It is sad that Ronald Acuna Jr., Austin Riley and Ozzie Albies are all out with injuries, along with staff ace Spencer Strider, as this could have been a true juggernaut squad in the playoffs with this quartet of All-Stars, including MVP- and Cy Young-level talent.
