MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Sept. 25
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
That brings RHP Zac Gallen to the forefront, against a pesky San Francisco squad. The strength of Gallen’s game is his run-prevention. For his career, he has a 3.30 ERA across 142 starts, and while his 3.74 ERA this season is his second highest mark, it would still land him inside the top-35 pitchers, if he had a few more innings to his credit.
Gallen has seen is strikeouts slide down to 9.2 per nine innings this season, a personal low and he has been below 10.3 per nine each of the last three campaigns. Over the last two months, the Giants have been within hailing distance of league average runs per game, but nothing too special. The projected lineup for tonight does have a 25.9% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, which is higher than what we typically see from this platoon-heavy squad. Projecting a win is usually folly, though it is nice to see that Arizona is -225 money line home favorites to garner the victory tonight.
Though he has nearly three walks per nine innings in this stretch, he has ceded only half a dozen home runs. The biggest concern is that he has only 7.3 strikeouts per nine innings, though that has increased to 8.2 per nine, when looking at his last five appearances.
Boston of course is without Rafael Devers, who was finally shut down with a sore shoulder that was impacting his swing and of course his power. That means more Triston Casas 31.7% strikeout rate, in 161 PAs against right-handed pitching this season. Trevor Story (28.6%, 70 PAs) is healthy for the moment, Connor Wong (24.6%, 325 PAs) should be behind the plate and Wilyer Abreu (28.8%, 368 PAs) is like a wind machine.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Arizona Diamondbacks
Rookie RHP Mason Black is the 15th best prospect for San Francisco, though he is not on any of the industry top-100 lists.
He is getting a cup of coffee to close out the season, with a decent chance of making the 2025 Opening Day roster.
Last year he was promoted to Triple-A midseason and that is where he resumed his baseball journey this year. Most projection systems have him as a solid fourth or fifth starter. He probably would be a reliever, if he had a better fastball, but there is still plenty of opportunity and value for a combo pitcher, who has a good breaking ball and can take the mound once a week.
The lack of strikeouts, means plenty of hard contact and Black does have a 1.87 home runs per nine innings rate, during his brief time in The Show. Of course, going against the Diamondbacks is always a scary situation, with the team leading the league in runs scored on the season (5.46 rpg), since the All-Star Break (6.26 rpg) and in September (6.13 rpg).
Riding with the usual suspects is a savvy strategy, with Corbin Carroll, Joc Pederson, Ketel Marte and Christian Walker comprising the core four. Veteran basher Eugenio Suarez is the perfect player to round out full stacks, with a strong profile against Black’s offerings.
Main Slate Wild Card Target: Los Angeles Angels
RHP Davis Martin has been meh, over his last four starts, with a 6.16 EA, 4.69 FIP and 4.24 xFIP. He has 19 innings in this stretch, with 17 strikeouts, with a trio of taters. Between the pandemic and Tommy John surgery, Martin missed his 2023 projected arrival to The Show. The former 14th round selection of the 2017 MLB Draft is nothing special, but he also is not completely dreadful.
That is why being selective with some Halos, is a decent under the radar strategy, that does have upside. Anaheim has not had injury luck with Mike Trout, who was limited to just 29 games this season and 266 over the last four. Then letting Shohei Ohtani go to the Dodgers in free agency, well it is hard to begrudge them for not wanting to shovel away a mountain of money, but what a season it has been for the reigning AL MVP.
Then there were injuries to half a dozen regulars, in addition to Trout, which has had the DFS world rightfully picking on the Angels for significant portions of the season. Tonight we can look to two or three of Taylor Ward, Zach Neto, Logan O’Hoppe, Mickey Moniak and Eric Wagaman as differentiation plays. Again DO NOT GO OVERBOARD, but a sprinkling here and there is just right.
