MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | April 5
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Injuries have been an issue for deGrom, limiting him to 37 starts since the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. This is already his third year in Texas, though today will be only his 11th start for the Rangers. Most season long projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, The Bat, etc.) have lofty strikeout numbers, ranging from 11.5-to-12.1 per nine innings, which would be among the league leaders.
Tampa is a pesky collection of hitters, though aside from Brandon Lowe and Yandy Diaz, most are unproven. Junior Caminero and Jonathan Aranda have shown flashes of upside, though both still need more seasoning to be sure. Then there are “rookies” Jake Mangum and Kameron Misner, who are 29 and 27 years old. The bottom of the lineup has Taylor Walls and Jonny DeLuca, who are just happy to be in The Show at this point.
The key with this lineup is limiting strikeouts, with only Lowe (26.0%, 369 PAs) above league average, with a tradeoff for power (.119 ISO against right-handed hitters collectively, since the start of last year).This has deGrom with a reasonable chance to be eligible for a quality start (six innings, with three or fewer earned runs), if he can be economical with his mid-80s pitch allocation.
Prior to that outburst, the M’s had scored only 18 runs through their first seven games. Seattle is constructed similarly to Tampa’s offense, though the Mariners have more accomplished hitters. We know that rostering LHP Robbie Ray is always an adventure, though he is a true strikeout artist, which will always have him in the mix for DFS glory. The best Seattle batsmen all strikeout above league average rate, including Julio Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena, Mitch Garver and switch-hitting catcher Cal Raleigh.
Injuries have been an issue for Ray, with tonight being just the 10th start since the 2022 season, for the 33-year-old southpaw. Depending on how popular he is, savvy gamers will want to consider a direct-leverage stack, focusing on the aforementioned M’s bats.
For those who are not ready for the Robbie Rayllercoaster experience, RHPs Tanner Bibee in Anaheim, Brady Singer in Milwaukee and Taj Bradley in Texas are reasonable pivots. That trio has less projected upside, but they also bring less volatility in a highly volatile sport.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Contrarian Target: Cincinnati Reds
After losing three consecutive games 1-0, Cincinnati shook things up on Friday, losing 3-2 in Milwaukee. The Reds are far too talented of a team to have their offense bottled up for long, so now is the time to pounce.
On tap is a matchup against RHP Elvin Rodriguez, who has had quite the baseball journey. He started out in 2017 with the Los Angeles Angels in the Dominican League, spending the next eight seasons meandering through the Detroit and Tampa systems. He has been plying his trade in Japan, with the Yakult Swallows for the last two years, finally getting a chance from Milwaukee to pitch in The Show.
Projections are not pretty for Rodriguez, who throws a variety of breaking balls, but he lacks velocity and movement on his fastball, which of course is a problem when facing the best batters in the world.
Elly De La Cruz is a budding superstar, though the rest of the Reds are far from household names. Matt McLain and Spencer Steer are budding talents at the plate, getting help from journeyman switch-hitter Jeimer Candelario and longtime Los Angeles Dodger Gavin Lux.
Cincinnati had the third most steals last season, after leading the league in 2023. This is something that has been in the works for a couple of years and is paying dividends after the dreadful last place showing in this category in 2021, when the team had only 36 total steals. Everyone knows that De La Cruz is a demon on the basepaths, but Steer, Jake Fraley and TJ Friedl all have the green light. That is the gift that keeps on giving for stacks, since the old adage that “Speed never slumps.” is true to this day. Catcher William Contreras has allowed 72-plus steals in each of the last two seasons, which bodes well for the Reds speedsters.
Main Slate Primary Target: Atlanta Braves
The suspension of Jurickson Profar and absence of Ronald Acuna Jr. (knee) and catcher Sean Murphy (ribs) have decreased the depth of the Atlanta batting order. However, the first five hitters are All-Star caliber bats, with Matt Olson, Marcel Ozuna and Austin Riley thriving against right-handed hurlers. Michael Harris II and Ozzie Albies can hold their own, plus Bryan De La Cruz has some pop against same-handed pitchers, when he actually makes contact. Jared Kelenic is at a ridiculously low salary and if he is in the nine-hold as expected, he can be used in “wraparound” stacks as the punt du jour.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
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No single bet defines a profitable night, just like no one DFS lineup guarantees a bink.
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