Wednesday is a getaway day, with a variety of early baseball contests and a featured-slate coalessing around the cadre of games at 6:40 p.m. ET and later on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before we get to our MLB DFS picks, as always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help identify today’s MLB DFS stacks, key pitchers and daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Chris Sale and George Kirby as key arms, with Baltimore, Tampa and, of course, the Coors Field Extravaganza participants as the teams to stack.
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | May 8
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: LHP Chris Sale vs. Boston Red Sox — 3.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,800 | FanDuel $10,500 | Yahoo $53
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool does recognize “Remember Me?!” spot, but there is no actionable information inputs impacting the projections. LHP Chris Sale plied his trade in Boston from 2017, until last season. More often than not, injuries were an issue and he ended up with only 115 starts for the Red Sox. Sale is now in his age-35 season and his last All-Star Game appearance was back in 2018. He still has above average strikeout production with 10.31 per nine innings this season, but that is well down from his prime a half decade ago.
Romy Gonzalez (wrist) may be returning to action today, though the BoSox are still without Masataka Yoshida, Triston Casas, Trevor Story and now Rob Refsnyder (hamstring) is dinged up. Rafael Devers an Tyler O’Neill are still a productive lefty/right combination and journeyman Garrett Cooper is competent against southpaws, but the rest of the lineup is shaky at best.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP George Kirby at Minnesota Twins — 3.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,000 | FanDuel $9,500 | Yahoo $47
Last night the Mariners staged an exciting comeback win, plating four runners in the ninth inning, while also getting a pinch-hit grand slam from Cal Raleigh in the seventh inning, completing a 10-6 victory by scoring eight runs after starting pitcher Bailey Ober allowed just a pair of runs in his five innings.
That should have Minnesota feeling a little miffed and motivated tonight, though taking our a measure of payback on RHP George Kirby is a tall order. Last season Kirby was named to the All-Star team and he ended up leading the league with 0.9 walks per inning and a 9.06 strikeouts to walks ratio. This year he has upped that to 10.25 strikeouts per walks, which again is the best in all of the land.
Somehow Kirby has actually been unlucky, with his 2.85 xERA and 2.07 FIP, well below his actual 3.76 ERA. In addition to limiting walks, he allows very little power and the increased strikeouts look like they may be sustainable.
Minnesota does set up well against right-handed pitching as the team is loaded with left-handed power. The Twins also have above average strikeouts, so this should be a great game to watch. Kirby has the third highest probability of being a top-two pitcher on DraftKings and Yahoo, while he has the second-best odds of being a the top ace on FanDuel. The salary cap is tight with two spendy pitching options and a Coors Field Extravaganza, so dropping from Sale to Kirby as the ace of your roster has merit.
Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Aaron Civale vs. Chicago White Sox — 3.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 6:50 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,800 | FanDuel $8,500 | Yahoo $36
In his last three starts, RHP Aaron Civale has allowed 18 earned runs in a mere 13.2 innings. To his credit he has issued a reasonable six walks, with only two home runs against 13 strikeouts, but Chicago got to hi for six runs in 4.1 innings two starts ago.
In his first four starts, Civale ceded just eight runs in 23 innings with 24 strikeouts. We know that Chicago is one of the worst offensive teams in the league, so the real question is which side wins out tonight – the struggling pitcher who is better than his current form, or a dreadful offense relying on luck, smoke and mirrors.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Tampa Bay Rays vs. RHP Chris Flexen — 5.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 6:50 p.m. ET
The Tampa magic may finally have run out, though there is a chance that even this scuffling squad can perk up for a game against RHP Chris Flexen. Between 2017 and 2019 as Flexen bounced between the Mets and the minors, he had serious walk issues (54 in 78 innings, with just 49 strikeouts), which led to him washing out of the league. DFS gamers know that Flexen did find success in the KBO during the 2020 season, as that was one of the few leagues that was active during the early days of the pandemic.
Flexen showed enough with the Doosan Bears, that the Seattle Mariners gave him a $4..5 million two-year deal. The baseball nomad was at least serviceable, though he was released to waivers in the third season. Colorado took a chance, but decided enough was enough after 12 late season starts and they elected to not bring him back. That gets us to present day, with the dilapidated ChiSox just trying to patch holes everywhere.
In 29.2 innings this season, Flexen has allowed 12 walks, with just 17 strikeouts. The hits have not been as frequent, but that seems likely to course-correct soon. Josh Lowe may rejoin the team shortly, though Brandon Lowe, Taylor Walls and Jonathan Aranda are all out and of course he who shall remain nameless is suspended for good reason.
Yandy Diaz, Randy Arozarena and Harold Ramirez have all been slumping through the first six weeks of the season, but they are veterans with a good track record of success. Isaac Paredes and Richie Palacios have been holding down the fort, though they should have help today against Flexen.
Main Slate Secondary Target: Chicago Cubs vs. RHP Randy Vasquez — 4.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool likes the Yankees against RHP Spencer Arrighetti, who has had a rough go in his rookie campaign. Even excluding his dreadful first start where he allowed seven runs in three innings, with seven hits and three walks against just three strikeouts, he still has a 5.40 ERA and 1.65 WHIP, though to his credit the one home run and 18 strikeouts in 13.1 innings give hope. The 24-year-old was pressed into duty after injuries to Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier, thinned out the rotation, otherwise he would still be in Triple-A getting valuable experience.
Anthony Rizzo has been on a tear this season, with a .392 wOBA and .237 ISO in 102 at bats against opposite-handed hurlers. Alex Verdugo has performed well above expectations and of course Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge are both healthy. Oh yeah, that Juan Soto guy is pretty good too and taking the pressure off of Gleyber Torres and Anthony Volpe as they find their footing.
Soto and Judge are more expensive than any hitters playing in Coors Field on DraftKings, which makes for some fun roster construction. New York is the perfect counter-move against the San Francisco and Colorado stacks tonight.
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Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities
Tonight RHP Kyle Bradish looks like a pitcher to target for the under on his 4.5 strikeouts prop, which is currently available on Fanatics at +115. Bradish is projected for 4.2 strikeouts today, which is under tonight’s milestone, but also not too far off the 4.5 threshold we need him to stay under. Thankfully there are no partial strikeouts.
OddsShopper shows this bet has +102 “true odds,” and the +115 provides a favorable 5.4% expected ROI. We can also see how crucial it is to shop the odds, as sportsbooks tend to vary wildly with odds. This can be seen with “sharp” book Pinnacle all the way down at –112, which is downright punitive by comparison.
Bradish has made only one start this season, with his debut delayed by a sprained UCL. Last Thursday, he held the Yankees to just one run, with five strikeouts across 4.2 innings. Using his 84 pitches as a baseline, he should be cleared to go up to 90 if things are working well, though if things go sideways, it would not be a shock for manager Brandon Hyde to have a quick hook. It is a long season for the Orioles, who are currently in first place of the American League East, with a 23-12 record and the team had designs on a deep playoff run. They will need Bradish for that to be successful.
The projected lineup for the Nationals has a solid 19.2% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching over the last season and change, though the team does not offer much power. Bradish has above average groundball results, so he may just ease into this one and not worry as much about strikeouts with the Batters of Birdland heavily favored in this Battle of the Beltway.
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Final Thoughts for Wednesday, May 8 — MLB DFS Picks
For the featured-slate tonight, Cincinnati looks like there will be precipitation during the game, the coverage and timing are still in question, but it will be wet. Be sure to check in with your favorite MLB Weather Report page closer to first pitch for updates.
Before you finalize your MLB DFS picks, check out today’s Stokastic MLB Live Before Lock Show, at 5:30 p.m. ET, brought to you by Sleeper – new users, use this link to receive a $500 first deposit match! Full details here.
