Saturday brings wall-to-wall baseball, with three waves of action, culminating in a five-game featured slate with a 7:15 p.m. ET first pitch on DraftKings. Before we get to our MLB DFS picks, as always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help identify today’s MLB DFS stacks, key pitchers and daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to George Kirby, Reynaldo Lopez and Yilber Diaz as the key Saturday night arms, while Christian Scott presides over the afternoon action. For offenses, there are plenty of choices with the Phillies dominating the early going, while the Diamondbacks provide a semi-contrarian approach to the featured contests.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | July 13
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP George Kirby (SEA at LAA)
White Sox vs. Pirates – 3.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
$10,300 at DraftKings
$11,000 at FanDuel
$56 at Yahoo
Opposite Cease tonight will be RHP Reynaldo Lopez, who is having a ridiculous career season, in his age-30 campaign. Last year at the trade deadline, the Angels traded a couple of prospects to the White Sox for Lopez and RHP Lucas Giolito as they pushed their chips into the middle of the table for one last run with Shohei Ohtani. It did not work out, so once the collapse became obvious, Anaheim placed the duo on waivers, to get out of their salaries. Cleveland claimed both pitchers, but it did not result in postseason glory.
This offseason, Atlanta signed Lopez to a 3-year, $30 million dollar deal, with designs on moving the veteran back to a full-time rotation role. The results have been beyond any possible expectations, with Lopez posting a 1.71 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings. He has allowed more than two earned runs only once, and that was just three against the Mariners at the end of April, with six scoreless efforts to his credit. In the last 10 games, San Diego has plated more than three runs in only a trio of tiles, with half of the games resulting in one or less runs. Lopez is certainly intriguing tonight, but he is pretty much priced for perfection with his lofty salary.
That brings us to RHP George Kirby, who is in the midst of an excellent season. Last year he led the league with a miniscule 0.9 walks per nine innings rate, which is right in line with this year, though RHP Zach Eflin is slightly edging him out on the leaderboard. Kirby also topped all starters with 9.05 strikeouts per walks last year and he is again in the lead, upping the stakes with a wicked 9.91 strikeouts per walk.
Kirby is allowing just one baserunner per inning, which enables him to go after hitters at the plate. He does have four multi-home run games, but has allowed only 11 on the season and just two in his last eight starts, spanning 49.1 innings. In a baseball being baseball moment, it was back-to-back solo shots in Miami, in the sixth inning of what turned out to be an extra inning 3-2 loss for Seattle.
Anaheim has won two of the last three games, but that is window dressing, particularly considering that the Halos have been shut out four times in the last 10 games. The projected lineup has a 24.1% strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers over the last season and change, with Kirby posting a 23.3% K-rate in the same time frame.
Currently, Cease is the most popular option, but that has a lot to do with past history and name recognition. Current form and a tricky matchup have him with more underlying risk than The Masses are acknowledging at this time.
Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Yilber Diaz (ARZ vs. TOR)
Diamondbacks vs. Blue Jays – 4.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:15 p.m. ET
$7,800 at DraftKings
$8,700 at FanDuel
$40 at Yahoo
Tonight RHP Yilber Diaz is getting another start, in part due to his solid debut against Atlanta and with Merrill Kelly, Jordan Montgomery and Eduardo Rodriguez all on injured reserve. Diaz began the season in Double-A, was promoted to Triple-A, where he was named the Pacific Coast League Pitcher of the Week, then landed in the Arizona rotation. Life comes at you fast.
Diaz has a great fastball, with the ability to mix in a couple of breaking balls. He is definitely worthy of being in The Show, however, at just six-feet tall and 190 lbs, he may not have the frame to handle extended outings at the highest level of the sport. That is not a concern for tonight, nor is it for season long gamers who should be streaming Diaz against the trifling Toronto offense.
The Blue Jays definitely miss the depth they had last year, with Matt Chapman and Whit Merrifield wearing different uniforms, George Springer getting old overnight and Brandon Belt too washed to make the squad. Super-duper utility man Isiah Kiner-Falefa (knee) is on the injured reserve and Bo Bichette is nursing a calf issue that has bothered him since early-June.
Even though the projected lineup for Toronto has a below league average strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, this is still an interesting spot for Diaz. Between the 4.4 implied run total for the Blue Jays and several other pitching options, Diaz is shaping up as a strong differentiation play.
Early Slate Primary Target: RHP Christian Scott (NYM vs. COL)
Mets vs. Rockies – 3.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
$7,100 at DraftKings
$7,900 at FanDuel
$39 at Yahoo
There is some weather risk in New York, but it looks like there is ample time to get this game in tonight. The Rockies continue to be dreadful on the road, with a bottom-5 87 wRC+ (weighted runs created plus is an advanced metric that neutralizes various factors, including ballparks, to create a league-wide scoring efficiency baseline of 100). In Coors Field, the Rockies have a 93 wRC+, which is also in the bottom 5.
Tonight will be the eighth start for rookie RHP Christian Scott and he is still looking for his first victory. The top-ranked prospect in the Mets system, barely slid inside the top-50 on most industry sheets. The 25-year-old is still honing his craft, with 62 innings at Double-A last year and 42.1 at Triple-A this season, prior to his promotion. The strikeouts will improve, with Scott moving closer to one per inning. Today’s projected lineup for the Rockies has a 26.4% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching since the start of last season.
The only knock against the former Florida Gator is that he may not be efficient enough to close out the sixth inning. In his last three appearances, logged 5.2, 5.2 and five innings. This is important to note for FanDuel gamers as the quality start bonus is crucial on the single-pitcher site. Scott still rates out as a top-three option and one of the best point per dollar plays across the main MLB DFS sites.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Arizona Diamondbacks
Diamondbacks vs. Blue Jays – 4.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Jose Berrios
DK Top Stack %: 12.8%
FD Top Stack %: 12.6%
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool has six teams with between an 11.5% and a 13.5%% probability of being the highest-scoring team on the slate. That means half of the teams in action bring forth viable stacking situations tonight. Seattle has tallied 26 runs over the last four games, despite scoring the fourth fewest this season. Currently they look to be the most popular option, though it is early and too close for a definitive call.
While RHP Jose Berrios still has a 3.76 ERA and 1.13 WHIP for the season, his last seven games have been rough. He has ceded a round-tripper in each, with three multi-home run games in this timeframe. Across these 40.1 innings, he has a paltry 6.43 strikeouts per nine innings, with 11 home runs and 11 walks. This has worked out to a 5.53 ERA, 6.51 FIP and 4.87 xFIP, with 10 of his 29 strikeouts in this period coming on Sunday in Seattle, against the K-happy Mariners. Not much has changed with his pitch mix, velocity or movement, compared to his strong start to the year, but this is now an extended trend of putridity.
Arizona has won nine of 13 (69%) games, finally moving one game above .500, giving the World Series runner-ups a winning record for the first time since April 3. The Diamondbacks have scored five or more runs, nine times in this stretch, despite facing solid pitching from the Atlanta, San Diego and the Dodgers.
Christian Walker and Joc Pederson will be bringing the lumber and Rookie of the Year, Corbin Carroll finally has been showing some pop at the plate, with four extra-base hits in his last six games. He also had a pair of steals, giving him four stolen bases in his last eight games.. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has missed the last two games with a sore shoulder, but he is likely to return tonight against his former team. Ketel Marte came in as a pinch-hitter Friday for Pederson, getting on base with a walk in one of his two plate appearances, while also pulling off a double-steal with Carroll in the ninth inning, which led to a Geraldo Perdomo sacrifice fly to win the game 5-4.
Focus on the top-half of the order for the featured-slate, with the trio of Eugenio Suarez, Alek Thomas and catcher Gabriel Moreno a late-slate differentiation stack from the bottom of the lineup.
Early Slate Primary Target: Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies vs. Athletics – 5.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:05 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Mitch Spence
DK Top Stack %: 10.1%
FD Top Stack %: 10.3%
There is a great scene in the movie Dazed and Confused, where the rising seniors are terrorizing the incoming freshman class, with Cole Hauser playing the character Benny, who leads the upperclassmen in sending a message to the soon to be initiated frosh boys. He and two buddies arrive outside the junior high in his pickup, which is of course equipped with a CB radio that also is hooked up to the truck speakers for broadcasting fun.
The phrase “Mitchy, Mitchy, Mitchy, Mitchy … we’re looking for you Pal …” should have anyone who has seen this moving chuckling right now. For those who have not, Mitchy is the young protagonist Mitch Kramer, who is also pitching for his baseball team that night.
This is a long way of setting up a mental picture of Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner and friends, getting ready to get in their hacks on RHP Mitch Spence. Clip here on YT, no ads.
Spence was actually the first overall pick in the Rule 5 draft this year, so for the Athletics to keep him, he must remain on the active roster, or he reverts back to the Yankees. New York also left him unprotected in 2022, though no teams took that opportunity to give Spence a whirl.
The 26-year-old is best suited to be a reliever, but with this being another lost season for the A’s, he is getting a tryout in the rotation. The last three starts have been rough for Spence, as he has allowed 12 runs in 16.1 innings, including two games against the hapless Angels. It is going to be hot and humid in Philadelphia, which should have the ball jumping out of the cozy confines of Citizens Bank Park.
In addition to the aforementioned trio of Phillies, Alec Bohm, Nick Castellanos, Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh all profile well against Spence.
If you need some more tips on how to use the Post-Contest Simulator to improve your lineup study process, Steve Buzzard has a great guide here on how to maximize your lessons learned from the Sims! Check it out HERE.
Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
Today, LHP Andrew Abbott will be facing the Miami Marlins in Cincinnati for a late-afternoon matchup. The under on his 5.5 Strikeouts is intriguing on Fliff where it is currently available at +100 odds.
New users at Fliff can receive a $100 deposit match on their first Fliff Coin purchase, click here for details.
OddsShopper shows this bet has -113 “true odds” for Abbott to fall under six strikeouts, which brings a terrific 6.2% expected ROI.
We can also see how important it is to shop the odds, as evidenced by Pinnacle all the way down at a -135 line, which equates to a NEGATIVE 8% expected ROI.
Abbott is a good pitcher, but his strikeouts have been inconsistent, despite “good stuff” which has manifested in only a 10% swinging strike rate across his last 882 batters faced. Righties can get to him for power, but the project Miami lineup is lacking in that arena. The Marlins do a good job of limiting strikeouts, with the projected lineup having a 17.5% rate against southpaws this season.
Looking at his 12 most recent games, in reverse chronological order, we can see that Abbott is all over the place with strikeout results of eight, two, two, 10, three, five, six, three, two, four, two and eight. Getting this line at even money is a tremendous bonus, but it also looks decent on Caesers and SuperBook at -106, for close to a 3% expected ROI.
Other wagers are continually popping up and disappearing every few minutes as lineups are being announced, which is why it is key to get an OddsShopper Premium subscription to take advantage of all opportunities.
Final MLB DFS Picks & Thoughts for Saturday, July 13
Saturday looks mostly clear, with only Philadelphia looking at rain during the afternoon slate. It should not be particularly worrisome, though is worth checking back with your favorite MLB Weather Report page closer to first pitch for updates before making your MLB DFS picks.
Before you finalize your MLB DFS picks, check out today’s Stokastic MLB Live Before Lock Show at 3:00 p.m. ET brought to you by Underdog Fantasy – new users, use this link to receive a first-deposit match up to $250!
