MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | April 29
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Webb is known as an extraordinary ground ball artist who has discipline to be economical with his pitches and not chase strikeouts, though he can get them when they are available. He led the National League each of the last two seasons with 204.2 and 216 innings, finishing sixth and second in the Cy Young Award voting.
This year in six starts, he has allowed only eight earned runs, one round-tripper and six doubles in 36.1 innings, earning four quality starts. He also has 44 strikeouts to his credit and will be facing a San Diego lineup missing Jackson Merrill, Luis Arraez, Jake Cronenworth and Jason Heyward tonight. It is folly to try to project the win bonus with any certainty, which is made tougher tonight with RHP Nick Pivetta on the bump for the home team.
In his six starts, Peralta closed the book on the fifth inning four times, completed the eighth inning once and went 5.1 frames in the remaining effort. This resulted in 33.1 total innings with 94.2 pitches per game, and Webb is at 36.1 in his six starts on 97.2 per game. While that may not seem like much, particularly on a game-to-game basis, the gap does widen steadily throughout the season — just some perspective on how different pitching styles can be advantageous or detrimental, depending on matchups. This is good information to file away for the sub-slates that tend to not be covered by free content.
Chicago has recorded the fourth-fewest runs in the league, the third-fewest home runs and fewest total bases overall this season. The .211/.286/.326 triple-slash line as a team is an embarrassment to the game, basically making opposing pitchers look something close to the Washington version of Max Scherzer.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Secondary Target: Tampa Bay Rays
Colorado is also in play against RHP AJ Smith-Shawver, who issues too many walks and just enough power to get himself in hot water a couple times per game.
The Rays are beginning a new homestand at George Steinbrenner Field, with the weather warming up in the Tampa area. Tonight at first pitch, temperatures should be in the low 80s with a 50% to 60% humidity range. There will be a light 7 to 10 mph breeze in from right field, though that should not dissuade anyone from looking at the power bats tonight.
It has been a fun MLB adventure for RHP Michael Lorenzen, who actually was a part-time outfielder during his Cincinnati days in addition to pitching. The highlight of that adventure was in September of 2019, when Lorenzen became the first player to win the game as a pitcher, hit a home run and play in the field since Babe Ruth accomplished that feat nearly 100 years earlier.
Since then, the now 33-year-old has been focused on pitching, particularly with the incorporation of the universal designated hitter in the 2020 season.
Now that his career is winding down, Lorenzen has been ceding more power to batters swinging the stick from either side of the plate, which bodes well for the Tampa Bay boppers.
Brandon Lowe, Jonathan Aranda, Junior Caminero and rookie Kameron Misner are the foundational plays for a full stack, which can easily be trimmed to a duo or trio in support of a primary stack from a different team. Chandler Simpson, Yandy Diaz and Christopher Morel are the second wave of players, and while there is no need to force them into stacks, they do not need to be crossed out either.
Late Slate Contrarian Target: Seattle Mariners
The Mariners will be facing RHP Jack Kochanowicz, an unheralded prospect since being a third-round selection in the 2019 MLB Draft. The 24-year-old would be better off as a nameless, multi-inning reliever, though the pitching-desperate Angels need him in the rotation. Across his 91.2 innings in The Show over the last season and change, he had a pitiful 3.73 strikeouts per nine innings, essentially pitching to contact and hoping for his defense to vacuum up ground balls.
In his 16 starts, he ceded a reasonable 12 home runs, 15 doubles and 18 walks. This resulted in a 5.47 ERA, which is the cost of doing business on the cheap for the Halos.
Kochanowicz can absorb punishment of the occasional extra-base hit, but if the Mariners can get the ball through the infield consistently, he is unlikely to withstand the onslaught forever. Seattle is the most pitching-friendly park in the league, with the Mariners doing their best to construct a lineup that plays well at home but also morphs into an effective unit on the road.
While the home run numbers are not gaudy, there is plenty of pop in the M’s order, particularly when switch-hitters Cal Raleigh and Jorge Polanco are swinging the stick from the left side of the plate. Luke Raley is a hidden gem, and if he is on your season-long waiver wires (yes, I know a quaint fantasy format), do yourself a favor and add him to your roster.
Rowdy Tellez is a major pinch-hit risk with Los Angeles having four fresh southpaws ready for action in the bullpen. He can pay off his salary with one swing of the bat, but against Kochanowicz’s pitching profile, it is better to pony up the extra salary for Julio Rodriguez or Randy Arozarena.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
If you’re serious about making sharp MLB DFS picks, you already know that long-term success starts with using the right tools. The same approach applies to sports betting — and that’s where Portfolio EV shines.
Take Austin Hayes under 1.5 total bases, for example. This is a +EV bet, meaning it has positive expected value based on the best odds available. But smart betting with Portfolio EV isn’t about chasing isolated plays; it’s about consistently firing off a high volume of +EV wagers. With the Mass Entry tool, you can scale your action and let the math compound your edge over time.
Just like one DFS lineup won’t guarantee a takedown, one bet won’t define your night — it’s the consistent process that leads to profit.
Portfolio EV is built for bettors who want to win over the long haul. By identifying market inefficiencies, the best available odds and stacking a portfolio of +EV bets, it sets you up for compounding returns over time. This isn’t about chasing hot streaks — it’s about trusting the numbers and executing a smart, consistent and scalable strategy to beat the books.
Hayes is in his first season with the Cincinnati Reds, having spent most of his career in the American League with Baltimore. Even though he is in his home venue of the Great American Ballpark, which is very hitting friendly, he does not have the same familiarity with it as other teammates yet. He has good pop, but the current heater has been unexpected, particularly the success against same-handed hurlers.
The skill that has kept RHP Miles Mikolas in the league all of these years is being able to absorb punishment from opposing offenses while relying on his defense to cover for him on all the balls in play. Hayes needs at least two singles or a double to earn more than 1.5 total bases tonight, which has the math grading out in favor of those taking the under.
TLDR: just let Portfolio EV do the heavy lifting and mental gymnastics while trusting in the tried and true top-down betting world.
