Sunday MLB action gets underway at 1:35 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before we get to our MLB DFS picks, as always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help identify today’s MLB DFS stacks, key pitchers and daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Aaron Nola and Tyler Glasnow as key arms, with their respective offenses also being two of the best stacking situations.
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | April 21
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Aaron Nola vs. Chicago White Sox — 3.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:35 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,800 | FanDuel $10,300 | Yahoo $44
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool would not be surprised if the implied run total for the Chicago White Sox dips below three prior to RHP Aaron Nola throwing the first pitch of the afternoon. The 30-year-old has improved across his four starts, with the only minor concern being five home runs allowed in 23.1 innings. Of course, two came in his debut against the Atlanta Braves, who also scored six of the nine earned runs ceded by Nola this year. In the three subsequent starts, he has allowed three home runs, with each being a solo shot as well as the only runs the savvy veteran has ceded in April.
Luis Robert Jr., Yoan Moncada and Max Stassi are all out with injuries, and now Paul DeJong is dinged up. That means the likes of Dominic Fletcher, Lenyn Sosa, Braden Shewmake and veteran backup catcher Martin Maldonado are all seeing far more playing time than they deserve. Eloy Jimenez always seems to be dealing with some nagging injury, and there is only so much that Gavin Sheets, Andrew Benintendi and Robbie Grossman can do. By the way, those last four are the heart of the order for the ChiSox. Advantage Nola!
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Hunter Brown at Washington Nationals — 4.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:35 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $6,800 | FanDuel $6,300 | Yahoo $28
UPDATE: RHP Cristian Javier has been scratched, so RHP Hunter Brown will be drawing the start this afternoon in our nation’s capital. He is underpriced across the DFS sites, mostly as a result of his third start of the season, where he allowed nine rune in Kansas City, lasting just two outs. This was mostly an issue of being hittable, but he ceded only one double and one home run, the other nine hits were singles and he had just one walk.
Somehow Washington has won three of the last five games, including a pair in Los Angeles and then yesterday the team hung around to get a 5-4 victory in extra innings. Quick, name three hitters on the Nationals … yeah, anyone that got more than two is a true seam-head. For the record, this was a trick question as Lane Thomas and CJ Abrams are the only above average players on the team. This duo is the cornerstone for the roster and either could actually make the All-Star Game on their own merits, but they have basically no support from the rest of the lineup. It feels like a lifetime ago when the Nationals beat the Astros in the World Series. My condolences to Nats fans.
Javier was a strong play, Brown less so, however the salary savings is driving his popularity to the moon. Taking Thomas and Abrams in a few lineups where you have pitchers other than Brown is a savvy strategy, though there is no real need to go overboard with a full Nats stack.
Late Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Tyler Glasnow vs. New York Mets — 3.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $11,500 | FanDuel $11,000 | Yahoo $53
There is no discount for RHP Tyler Glasnow tonight as he stands out as the safest pitcher on the late slate. There are alternatives with RHP Merrill Kelly in San Francisco facing the Giants and RHPs Chris Bassitt and Joe Musgrove squaring off in San Diego. Depending on how the projected popularity plays out, any one of that trio could be a fine leverage option.
Glasnow, of course, is already on his sixth start, having begun the season in Korea for the early Seoul Series. His only hiccup was on Monday when the aforementioned Nationals somehow got to him for six earned runs and a pair of round-trippers. Prior to that effort, he had a 14-strikeout performance in Minnesota, so we should grant him a mulligan in a slightly above-average matchup against the New York Mets.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Houston Astros at LHP Mitchell Parker — 5.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:35 p.m. ET
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool has the Astros at the top offense on the day in a matchup with rookie Mitchell Parker. The 24-year-old is only the 29th-ranked prospect in the Washington farm system, and with only 14.1 innings to his credit above Double-A, he would still be in the minors if not for the injury to RHP Josiah Gray. Best case for Parker is that he turns into a back-of-the-rotation arm next year or the season after that. However, for this afternoon — well, there is a risk that he is going to be throwing batting practice for Houston.
For years the Astros have been one of the best teams against southpaws, and nothing is different this season. Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker are sublime against same-handed pitching, while Jose Altuve has made his bones for years against lefties. Veteran Alex Bregman can still get it done, and catcher Yainer Diaz is a budding star. Discounted differentiation can be found at the bottom of the order with Chas McCormick, Jose Abreu, Jeremy Pena and the well-travelled Mauricio Dubon.
Late Slate Primary Target: Philadelphia Phillies vs. RHP Nick Nastrini — 4.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:35 p.m. ET
Today will be the second start for RHP Nick Nastrini, and the former UCLA Bruin has a tough matchup in Philadelphia. Nastrini is the seventh-ranked prospect for the White Sox, and he doesn’t even come close to sniffing any accolades on the industry lists, landing outside the top 200 prospects. He does have strikeout stuff, but he is better suited as a multi-inning reliever, as it will be tough going against lefties a second time in The Show.
Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber are automatic clicks in any Philadelphia stack, and they are outstanding one-offs across the MLB DFS sites. Trea Turner and J.T. Realmuto are the next tier of Phillies, with Nick Castellanos, Alec Bohm and Brandon Marsh the candidates for crafting full five-man stacks.
Late Slate Primary Target: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. RHP Adrian Houser — 5.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool bookends the Top Pitchers Tool in recommending the offenses backing up the spotlighted pitchers in today’s article. RHP Adrian Houser never quite broke through on his promise while with the Brewers, mostly due to a lack of strikeouts and underlying command issues. He is worthy of being in a rotation, but the right-handed hurler is now on the wrong side of 30 and better days are not ahead.
Houser is an above-average ground ball pitcher, but he gives up a lot of hard contact, and if his defense is not taking care of him, things can go sideways quickly. There are too many lefties in the Los Angeles lineup to even consider Houser as a tournament option for differentiation on the shallow late slate. Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy and James Outman will be the lefties to target, with the otherworldly Mookie Betts leading off. We should see Will Smith behind the dish after getting a break on Saturday, and newcomer Teoscar Hernandez is another option as well in this star-laden lineup.
Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities
Attacking RHP Louie Varland in the DFS world is obvious, but we can also double down Parker Meadows as a longshot, boasting a tremendous payday on his home run prop. OddsShopper shows this bet has +729 “true odds,” and the +900 line currently available at FanDuel provides a ridiculous 20.7% expected return on investment (ROI).
To be clear, there is only a 12% chance of Meadows parking one in the cheap seats, but the inefficient line is very rewarding at the current number.
Over his last 144 opposite-handed matchups, Varland is allowing a .258 ISO and 44.2% hard contact. That fits in with Meadows’ strength against righties, making this a fun wager to sprinkle a little something on for in-game rooting interests for an otherwise boring matchup.
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Final Thoughts for Sunday, April 21 — MLB DFS Picks
There should not be any issues with precipitation, though most venues will be on the cooler side of the temperature scale with this still being early spring. Be sure to check in with your favorite DFS meteorological resources closer to first pitch to see if there are any urgent updates.
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