To deliver a long-term positive return, MLB DFS lineup study is crucial. Seeing what winning lineups looked like and how top players built their lineups compared to the average player is what elevates DFS players to the next level.
That’s why we’ve built the post-contest MLB Sims at Stokastic. Each day, our post-contest Sim updates with the previous night’s results. Users are able to compare their own lineups to others and see how lineups graded out. Consistently building positive ROI lineups will lead to better profits in the long run.
In this analysis, I look to highlight the main factors of the top-3 lineups in the $300K Relay Throw($100k to 1st) contest on DraftKings. Some points I will be looking for when breaking down these lineups is what kind of stack used, the average ownership percentage, highest-owned players, and the amount of lineups the user entered. We are searching for any patterns within these individual lineups in an attempt to apply certain tactics when building our next pool of lineups.
MLB DFS Lineup Study For DraftKings
User: sfarm22
Finish: 1st
Stack: 5-2-1/HOU,BOS,NYY
Average ownership: 130%
Amount of lineups entered: 150
Highest owned player: Sean Manaea 56%
User: bhoward137
Finish: 2nd
Stack: 5-1-1-1/ HOU,LAD,CLE,STL
Average ownership: 159%
Amount of lineups entered: 1
Highest owned player: N/A
User: dfssheets
Finish: 3rd
Stack: 5-2-1/HOU,STL,BOS
Average ownership: 151.4%
Amount of lineups entered: 1
Highest owned player: N/A
Analysis
The big question going into last night’s slate was “Will the Astros bounce back?”. To answer that, I would say yes, they did indeed bounce back. The Astros bats exploded last night scoring a slate high 10 runs with 5 home runs. Not only did their bats come alive but Astros pitcher, Ronel Blanco, threw a no-hitter which landed him at the top of the list for highest scoring pitchers at 47.05 DKFP.
If you have been consistently reading these articles, I bet you can figure out where the Astros ranked among the highest leverage percentage teams in our MLB Top Stacks Tool yesterday. If you are new to these breakdowns, I will let you in on a secret. The Astros ranked as the number 1 team for leverage percentage in our Top Stacks Tool at 4%. I want to point out as well that the Cardinals were the second highest leverage percentage team at 3% and showed up in 2 out of 3 lineups.
One anomaly for the top 3 lineups for this slate is the average ownership. In previous breakdowns, we mainly saw lineups in the top 3 have a range of 60%-110% for average ownership. A big reason for the skewed average is pitcher ownership and Astros ownership. Even though the Astros were the highest leveraged stack, it was very easy to get to Astros bats with the top pitching options being very cheap. Astros bats were pulling no less than 10% ownership and Red Sox pitcher, Tanner Houck, was at 35.3% ownership and featured in all 3 lineups. Â
Once again, we see how important the leverage percentage column in our Top Stacks Tool is with another slate featuring all teams who were in the top 3 for leverage. The whole point of this breakdown is to find strategies to apply when creating our own lineups.
With the first week of MLB wrapping up, we can adopt the strategy of having heavy ownership to the highest leverage percentage teams in our MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool. This strategy has been very apparent throughout every one of these breakdowns and has been proven as not a coincidence. Get our Top Stacks Tool and improve your ROI% with strategies learned from these breakdowns to boost your lineups to the top of any contest.
