To deliver a long-term positive return, MLB DFS lineup study is crucial. Seeing what winning lineups looked like and how top players built their lineups compared to the average player is what elevates DFS players to the next level.
That’s why we’ve built the post-contest MLB DFS Sims at Stokastic. The post-contest Sim updates with the previous night’s results. Users are able to compare their own lineups to others and see how lineups graded out. Consistently building positive ROI lineups will lead to better profits in the long run.
Here I look to highlight the main factors of the top 3 lineups in the $300K Bat Flip ($100,000 to 1st) contest on DraftKings. Some points I will be looking for when breaking down these lineups are what kind of stack used, the average ownership percentage, highest-owned players and the number of lineups the user entered. We are searching for any patterns within these individual lineups in an attempt to apply certain tactics when building our next pool of MLB DFS lineups.
MLB DFS Lineup Study for March 31
User: TheMish
Finish: 1st
Stack: 5-1-1-1/Royals, Reds, Nationals, Brewers
Average Ownership: 74.9%
Number of Lineups Entered: 150
Highest-Owned Player: Chris Sale 40%
User: jeff5022
Finish: 2nd
Stack: 4-3-1/Royals, Cubs, Rangers
Average Ownership: 72.5%
Number of Lineups Entered: 99
Highest-Owned Player:Â Mike Trout 59.6%
User: kevinrob2128
Finish: 3rd
Stack: 5-2-1/Royals, Reds, Nationals
Average Ownership: 95.4%
Number of Lineups Entered: 150
Highest-Owned Player: Erick Fedde 60.7%
MLB DFS Conclusions
The Royals exploded for a slate-high 11 runs last night and, to no one’s surprise, were featured heavily within the top 3 lineups yesterday. Looking into user jeff5022’s player pool, it’s very apparent that he owns a crystal ball of some sort by having incredibly high ownership of the Royals bats last night. Jeff went with 46.5% Nelson Velasquez, 44.4% Salvador Perez, 45% Bobby Witt Jr. and 41.4% M.J. Melendez. None of those players were over 6% owned across the field, which set Jeff up for an amazing day with 14 of his 99 lineups finishing in the top 50.
Since the Reds and Nationals showed up in two out of the three lineups, I’ve noticed a trend of the top 3 to 5 teams in Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool to mainly be the secondary stack in a lot of the high-scoring lineups. What that means is Stokastic’s Top Stacks Tool can be used as a core when building your lineups. For example, we could implement a strategy where we focus on four- and five-man stacks of the highest-leverage teams and fill the rest of the lineup with a mix of players from the top-rated stacks.
In only a limited sample size, we are able to come to the conclusion that we are aiming for heavier ownership to the highest-leverage stacks while using the top-rated stacks as our secondary or filler plays. Keep in mind that leverage is one of the most important factors when trying to take down a large-field GPP. Without leverage, you have nothing to separate yourself from the field.
