Our first look at MLB DFS delivered on Opening Day with huge prize pools and opportunities everywhere to make a profit (we already had a subscriber win $100K!) But to deliver a long-term positive return, lineup study is crucial. Seeing what winning lineups looked like and how top players built their lineups compared to the average player is what elevates DFS players to the next level.
That’s why we’ve built the post-contest Sims at Stokastic. Each day, our post-contest Sim updates with the previous night’s results. Users are able to compare their own lineups to others and see how lineups graded out. Consistently building positive ROI lineups will lead to better profits in the long run.
In this analysis, I look to highlight the main factors of the top-3 lineups in the $100K-to-first Opening Day Special Contest on DraftKings. Some points I will be looking for when breaking down these lineups is what kind of stack used, the average ownership percentage, highest-owned players, and the amount of lineups the user entered. We are searching for any patterns within these individual lineups in an attempt to apply certain tactics when building our next pool of lineups.
MLB DFS Lineup Study | Opening Day
User: jalenwestman
Finish: 1st
Stack: 5-1-1/CIN,SD,LAD
Average Ownership: 93.5%
Amount of lineups entered: 1
Highest owned player: N/A
User: ejamiec
Finish: 2nd
Stack: 4-3-1/CIN,TOR,MIA
Average Ownership: 95.9%
Amount of lineups entered: 10
Highest owned player: Yu Darvish 90%
User: johnrhight
Finish: 3rd
Stack: 2-x
Average Ownership: 106.1%
Amount of lineups entered: 1
Highest owned player: N/A
MLB DFS AnalysisÂ
Interesting array of lineups displayed in the top-3 for last night’s main slate with none of the players having more than 10 lineups. Two of the winners only entered single bullets.
Cincinnati was the No. 1 rated team in our Top Stacks Tool while also being showcased in our top MLB DFS Game Environments so it is very nice to see they came through and were essential in any winning lineup.
One factor that we can point out and make a mental note of is the average ownership of these lineups all fall within the 90-110% range. This is only the first main slate of the MLB season so we can’t make any strong conclusions on that number, but it is worth acknowledging for future reference.
Taking a look at user ejamiec’s player pool, he made it very clear who he thought was the best option at pitcher. Yu Darvish was only rostered in 7% of lineups, but ejamiec had Darvish in 90% of his lineups. He also struck gold on a 2.2% owned Cavan Biggio at $2,900, including him in 50% of the lineups entered.
I love the way ejamiec curated his player pool to his liking with him being very decisive in his stands about Yu Darvish and Biggio, both of whom ended up in his 2nd-place lineup. DFS is all about taking a firm stand on a player and living with the results, which is exactly what ejamiec did yesterday. Once you see the results over an extended period, you can make adjustments and improve your process.
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