We’re back with a monster 10-game MLB slate main slate that locks at 7:07 p.m. ET on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stack and Top Pitchers tools, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best MLB DFS contrarian picks and stacks for today’s action.
One of the keys to building a winning MLB DFS lineup is differentiation, so without contrarian picks like the ones below, you’ll struggle to separate from the pack in tournaments. Subscribe today for access to our industry-leading resources, including our lineup generator (available for NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA), our DFS simulation tools (available for NFL, NBA, MLB, PGA and MMA) and our industry-leading projections for every sport.
MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Tuesday, April 16
MLB DFS Contrarian Pitcher
Padres-Brewers: Dylan Cease
Stokastic’s Top 2 Pitcher Rate
DraftKings: 20.0%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $10,700
With good pitching options at a premium tonight, ownership is concentrated to three pitchers projected to get the majority of love. Newly minted Padre Dylan Cease is not one of those guys, however. Despite coming in with the second-highest top two pitcher percentage in Stokastic’s tools, Cease is falling through the cracks on DraftKings, as the field is hesitant to spend $10,700 on him in a difficult matchup with the Brewers.
Although Milwaukee has started the season as one of the best offenses in baseball, Cease has elite stuff, and he’s being misrepresented in a big way. Coming off a dominant outing against the Cubs in which he pitched six innings, allowed two unearned runs on two hits and two walks while striking out seven, Cease is in great form right now.
Cease grades out extremely well from a leverage perspective in Stokastic’s tools. He is currently projected to be a top-2 pitcher 20.0% of the time but only 11.3% of lineups are expected to roster him.
MLB DFS Contrarian Stack
Cubs-Diamondbacks
Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 9.1%
Top Value Projection
DraftKings: 3.0%
With 10 games on tonight’s docket, ownership on stacks is spread out all over the board. Only the Dodgers are projected for double-digit ownership, and at only 10.7%, they are hardly projected to be overwhelming chalk. Most of the offenses on this slate are projected to be somewhere in the 3% to 8% ownership range, with many of them standing out as reasonable contrarian options. That said, Arizona is the best of the bunch on DraftKings.
Despite the Diamondbacks’ enviable matchup with veteran right-hander Kyle Hendricks, the field isn’t getting to Arizona at nearly the rate it should. The Dodgers and Braves are in the same pricing tier as the Diamondbacks, and other good offenses like the Padres and Cubs are also in upside spots. As such, the reigning National League champs are getting squeezed out a bit on DraftKings.
While there’s opportunity cost in rostering the Diamondbacks over one of the other top stacks on the board, Arizona’s upside against Hendricks is undeniable, and it is coming in drastically underowned. The Diamondbacks are projected to be the top stack 9.1% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. With only 6.3% of the field expected to stack them, Arizona is the best tournament stack on the slate.
Other MLB Notes for April 16
This is another non-Coors Field slate with three pitchers projected to get most of the ownership on DraftKings. While I’m not in love with Logan Gilbert, Hunter Greene or Lance Lynn, it’s no surprise that they are picking up the majority of ownership considering the other options. Cease is a good tournament pivot, but he’s expensive and projects similarly to the group of three mentioned above. Although ownership on pitchers is pretty condensed, the opposite is true with stacks, so it shouldn’t be too difficult to get different in tournaments. Happy Hunting!
