We’re back with a seven-game MLB main slate that locks at 7:10 p.m. ET. Using Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stack and Top Pitchers tools, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best MLB DFS contrarian picks and stacks for today’s action.
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MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Saturday, April 27
MLB DFS Contrarian Pitcher
Guardians-Braves: Tanner Bibee
Stokastic’s Top Two Pitcher Rate
DraftKings: 11.5%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,400
With only seven games on tonight’s docket and weak pitching options scattered throughout the slate, ownership is pretty concentrated, with Dylan Cease and George Kirby projected to be the two highest-owned pitchers on the slate by far. Cease and Kirby are the top arms available, but that leaves plenty of other pitchers coming in with positive leverage, and Guardians right-hander Tanner Bibee leads the way as the top contrarian pitcher on DraftKings.
Coming into tonight’s start averaging only 13.4 DraftKings points per game, the field has no interest in buying low on Bibee in a tough spot against the Atlanta Braves. Although Bibee has been more of a solid pitcher than a spectacular one to start the season, he’s coming off one of his best performances of the year, allowing two runs on five hits and two walks over 5.2 innings while striking out eight in a win over Oakland. While tonight’s matchup with Atlanta is a far cry from facing the A’s at home, Bibee has elite strikeout upside every time he toes the rubber, and the field isn’t getting to him at nearly the rate it should be.
As of this writing, Bibee is far and away the highest-graded leverage pitcher in Stokastic’s tools. Currently projected to be a top-2 pitcher 11.5% of the time this slate plays out, only 1% of the field is expected to roster him.
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MLB DFS Contrarian Stack
Rays-White Sox: White Sox
Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 3.6%
Top Value Projection
DraftKings: 19.1%
Unlike at pitcher, where ownership is concentrated, only two offenses are projected to be over 10% owned. While the Rays and Twins look good in their own right, we have no shortage of contrarian stacks to choose from. That said, the White Sox stand out above the rest, and the White Sox are the top contrarian stack on DraftKings. Although stacking the White Sox in 2024 more often than not feels like a fool’s errand, there’s a time and a place for all offenses in MLB DFS.
Even with only seven games on tonight’s docket, the field has little to no interest in prioritizing the White Sox in a matchup with Aaron Civale, and there’s plenty of merit to getting to them in GPPs.
Despite projecting to be the top value stack 19.1% of the time this slate plays out, the White Sox are still projected to be one of the lowest-owned teams on the slate. While there is surely some opportunity cost in stacking the White Sox over teams like the Rays and Twins, they are so cheap that they offer paths to roster construction that otherwise would be closed.
