The MLB has finally returned, and we’ve got an eight-game Opening Day slate on DraftKings to celebrate. The first pitch for every game on the slate is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Using Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stack and Top Pitchers tools, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best MLB DFS contrarian picks and stacks for today’s action.
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MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Thursday, March 28
MLB DFS Contrarian Pitcher
Twins-Royals: Cole Ragans
Stokastic’s Top Two Pitcher Rate
DraftKings: 15.5%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,700
It’s no surprise that on Opening Day we have no shortage of quality pitching options. Pretty much every team is towing their top pitcher on the rubber, leaving us with quality arms all over the slate. As such, it’s only natural that a couple of them fall through the cracks a bit, and Cole Ragans is the top contrarian pitcher on DraftKings at $8,700.
After being acquired from the Rangers last summer, Ragans emerged as one of the best pitchers in fantasy baseball. Over his 12 starts for Kansas City, Ragans posted a 2.64 ERA and 89:27 K:BB across 71.2 innings. To say he’s carried that positive momentum into the offseason would be an understatement, as Ragans has lit up Spring Training, allowing four earned runs over 8.2 innings while striking out 10 and giving up only two walks. Despite his clear upside every time he steps on the mound, the field is uninterested in building around an unproven Ragans in an uncomfortable spot against the Twins.
As of this writing, Ragans is far and away the highest-graded leverage pitcher in Stokastic’s tools. Currently projected to be a top-two pitcher 15.5% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings, Ragans is only projected to be in 5.3% of lineups. While these numbers might slightly change as lineups come out, Ragans is undoubtedly one of the top tournament options on the slate.
MLB DFS High-Priced Contrarian Stack
Blue Jays-Rays: Blue Jays
Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 4.7%
Top Value Projection
DraftKings: 4.2%
With so many good pitching options today, there aren’t a ton of bats in great spots. The Dodgers will always be a look considering the overall strength of their lineup, but unsurprisingly they are getting an appropriate amount of ownership facing a middling Miles Mikolas. Ownership is pretty spread out across the board today, with most teams coming in either correctly or slightly over-owned. Toronto is one of the exceptions, and the Blue Jays are the top contrarian expensive stack on DraftKings.
Despite numerous signs pointing to upside here, Toronto is getting forgotten on DraftKings. The addition of Justin Turner should only strengthen what was already a rock-solid lineup, and while playing him with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is not an option, neither one of them are projected to be higher than 1.6% owned. Sure, it’s a tough spot against Zach Eflin, but that’s the case for pretty much every offense on the slate.
While their floor might be lower than other stacks in their price range due to a matchup with Eflin, Toronto isn’t getting nearly the love they should be getting on DraftKings. As of this writing, the Blue Jays are projected to be the top stack 4.70% of the time this slate plays out. With only 2.40% of the field projected to stack them, it makes sense why the Jays look so good from a leverage perspective.
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MLB DFS Low-Priced Contrarian Stack
Tigers-White Sox: Tigers
Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 8.2%
Stokastic’s Top Value Projection
DraftKings: 9.4%
It pains me to say this as a diehard Cleveland Guardians fan, but I like the Tigers a lot this season. I’m a believer in Tarik Skubal and the rest of their staff, and I think Detroit’s offense will surprise people in a big way this season.
That said, they stand out as the clear top cheap contrarian stack on DraftKings even if I wasn’t so high on them going into the season.
Regardless of your opinion on the Tigers, they are projected to be the top stack 8.2% of the time this slate happens. Making them even more appealing, they are projected to be the top value stack 9.4% of the time on this slate.
Facing one of the worst pitchers on the slate in Garrett Crochet, it’s surprising Detroit isn’t getting more love. With other more appealing stack options like the Dodgers and Reds, however, it begins to make sense. But with only 6.5% of lineups expected to stack the Tigers, the Motor City Kitties are my favorite tournament stack on the slate.
