We’re back with a monster 10-game MLB slate that locks at 7:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stack and Top Pitchers tools, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best MLB DFS contrarian picks and stacks for today’s action.
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MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Tuesday, June 18
MLB DFS Contrarian Pitcher
Red Sox-Blue Jays: Tanner Houck
Stokastic’s Top 2 Pitcher Rate
DraftKings: 15.4%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $10,300
It’s not often the most expensive pitcher on a slate is also the most positively leveraged, but that’s how the cookie crumbles tonight for Red Sox right-hander Tanner Houck. Houck is averaging 22.7 fantasy points per game while sporting a pristine 2.08 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 89 strikeouts and 15 walks over 91 innings. Houck has allowed three or fewer runs in 13 of 14 starts and has undoubtedly been one of the biggest surprises in 2024. Despite his success, Houck is falling through the cracks in a big way on DraftKings.
Houck’s 3.26 xERA calls for a bit of negative regression; however, this slate is littered with weak pitching options across every price point. With Pablo Lopez potentially out of play due to rain in Minnesota, Houck could potentially look even more appealing than he does now. While Houck’s ownership might come up in that scenario, the field is clearly showing a lack of interest in spending up on him in a tough matchup against the Blue Jays. With expensive offenses like the Dodgers the clear top priority, it’s unlikely that Houck will gain all that much steam at an expensive $10,300 price tag.
Houck stands out in a big way from a leverage perspective on DraftKings. As of this writing, he’s projected to be a top-2 pitcher 15.4% of the time this slate plays out. With only 8.3% of lineups expected to roster him, Houck is the top tournament arm on the slate.
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MLB DFS Contrarian Stack
Royals-Athletics: Athletics
Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 1.9%
Ownership Projection
DraftKings: 1.7%
Unlike at pitcher where ownership is pretty spread out, three offenses are projected for the majority of love on DraftKings. The Dodgers are in Coors Field facing Austin Gomber, so it’s no surprise that Los Angeles projects as the highest-owned team on the slate. San Francisco and Houston are right behind the Dodgers, leaving pretty much every other offense on the board underowned. Among that group lies the Athletics, and Oakland is the top contrarian stack on the board.
Full disclosure, I played Alec Marsh in his last start against the Yankees. Marsh taking a no-hitter into the seventh inning certainly wasn’t on my bingo card, and the Royals right-hander finished with a season-high 28 DraftKings points in a no-decision. Marsh was wildly underowned on that small four-game afternoon slate, and the cards have been completely flipped, with him projected to be the highest-owned pitcher on tonight’s slate. Marsh has been solid this season, and his 3.63 ERA and .285 wOBA set him up nicely for a matchup in Oakland. Marsh’s 4.47 xERA and .333 xwOBA tell a bit of a different story, and there’s real leverage in using some bats against him tonight. Playing Oakland here is more a play against a chalky Marsh than it is on the A’s themselves.
Other Contrarian Stacks to Consider
Rays, Rockies, White Sox, Tigers
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