TGIF! In typical Friday night fashion, we have a big 10-game MLB slate that locks at 7:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stack and Top Pitchers tools, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best MLB DFS contrarian picks and stacks for today’s action.
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MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Friday, June 7
MLB DFS Contrarian Pitcher
Guardians-Marlins: Ryan Weathers
Stokastic’s Top 2 Pitcher Rate
DraftKings: 8.3%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $7,100
With nine games on the board and mediocre pitching options across every price point, ownership is very concentrated. As of this writing, two pitchers are projected for a combined 73.8% ownership on DraftKings. While both Garrett Crochet and Lance Lynn look good in their own right, that leaves a bunch of pitchers who are coming in underowned. Ryan Weathers is one of those, and the Marlins left-hander is the top contrarian pitcher.
Weathers comes into tonight in excellent form, averaging a robust 25.25 DraftKings points over his past four starts. For the season, Weathers is averaging 16 fantasy points per game while sporting a 3.41 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 64 strikeouts and 20 walks through 12 starts. Weathers’ 22.1% strikeout rate is by far the highest of his career, as he’s finally starting to show the stuff that made him a highly valued prospect in the Padres system years ago. While a matchup with Cleveland isn’t exactly optimal, Weathers is pitching much better than his $7,100 price tag implies, and getting the Guardians in pitcher-friendly Miami makes the spot much more palatable.
Weathers is currently projected to be a top-2 pitcher 8.3% of the time this slate plays out. With only 1.4% of lineups expected to roster him, Weathers is the top contrarian arm to target in GPPs.
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MLB DFS Contrarian Stack
Giants-Rangers: Giants
Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 5.7%
Ownership Projection
DraftKings: 4.1%
Unlike at pitcher where only two players are projected to get the majority of love, ownership among bats is extremely spread out. Only two offenses are projected to be double-digit rostered as a stack, with most other stacks coming in somewhere between 3% and 9% owned. San Francisco falls in the latter group, and matched up with Michael Lorenzen in Texas, there’s a lot to like about the Giants in tournaments. Though Lorenzen has been good on paper with a 2.96 ERA and .290 WOBA, his underlying numbers call for major regression, and the Giants are falling through the cracks.
The Rangers rotation lost Jordan Montgomery and hasn’t had the services of Jacob DeGrom, Max Scherzer or Tyler Mahle all season. As Texas has tried to keep its proverbial head above water, Lorenzen has provided much-needed innings for the rotation. That said, Lorenzen’s 4.25 xERA and .328 xWOBA tell the story of a pitcher who has been getting by with smoke and mirrors. While his luck could continue tonight, San Francisco is in a great spot to take advantage of a pitcher who is due for some negative regression.
The Giants currently project to be the top stack 5.7% of the time this slate plays out, but only 4.1% of the field is expected to stack them.
Other Contrarian Stacks to Consider
Cubs, Rockies, Red Sox, Royals
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