We’re back with a seven-game MLB slate main slate that locks at 6:40 p.m. ET on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stack and Top Pitchers tools, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best MLB DFS contrarian picks and stacks for today’s action.
One of the keys to building a winning MLB DFS lineup is differentiation, so without contrarian picks like the ones below, you’ll struggle to separate from the pack in tournaments. Subscribe today for access to our industry-leading resources, including our lineup generator (available for NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA), our DFS simulation tools (available for NFL, NBA, MLB, PGA and MMA) and our industry-leading projections for every sport.
MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Friday, April 5 (Main Slate)
MLB DFS Contrarian Pitcher
Mariners-Brewers: Logan Gilbert
Stokastic’s Top-2 Pitcher Rate
DraftKings: 14.8%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,600
After a couple days of rough pitching options, we have plenty of good arms to choose from tonight. With Spencer Strider, Griffin Canning and Freddy Peralta all projected to be highly owned, Mariners right-hander Logan Gilbert is the pitcher falling through the cracks on DraftKings. Gilbert was phenomenal in his season debut, tossing seven innings in a no-decision against Boston on Saturday. Gilbert allowed one run on four hits and one walk while striking out eight batters, and even more encouraging, he induced a healthy 16 swinging strikes en route to those eight strikeouts. Despite clear upside every time he toes the rubber, Gilbert is getting forgotten about on DraftKings.
As of this writing, Gilbert is far and away the highest-graded leverage pitcher in Stokastic’s tools. Currently projected to be a top-2 pitcher 14.8% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings, Gilbert is only projected to be in 6.1% of lineups. He is undoubtedly one of the top tournament options in a favorable matchup against the Brewers.
MLB DFS Contrarian Stack
Mariners-Brewers: Mariners
Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 5.2%
Top Value Projection
DraftKings: 6.2%
On a slate with a bunch of high-end starters and a bunch of low-end starters, ownership on bats is pretty spread out among the teams facing the weak pitchers. As a result, the offenses going up against the good pitchers are getting no love, and Seattle has emerged as the top contrarian stack on the board against Freddy Peralta.
Although stacking against a pitcher of Peralta’s quality is never advised, this wouldn’t be the first time the Brewers ace got hit around, and the Mariners have power upside if Peralta is off tonight. While it’s still highly unlikely that the Mariners succeed in this spot, they aren’t getting nearly the love they should be getting in the context of this specific slate.
Seattle’s their floor might be lower than other stacks in this price range due to a matchup with Peralta. However, if the Mariners do find success here, they are likely to do so by hitting home runs. Seattle is projected to be the top stack 5.2% of the time this slate plays out, and only 2.2% of the field is projected to stack them. Those numbers don’t even account for the leverage against Peralta, which makes the Mariners look even more appealing.
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