We’re back with a monster 11-game MLB slate main slate that locks at 7:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stack and Top Pitchers tools, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best MLB DFS contrarian picks and stacks for today’s action.
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MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Friday, April 12
MLB DFS Contrarian Pitcher
Padres-Dodgers: Michael King
Stokastic’s Top Two Pitcher Rate
DraftKings: 9.5%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,000
With viable pitching options scattered across every price point, ownership is pretty spread out to six pitchers projected getting the majority of love. Padres starter Michael King is not in that group, however, and he’s the top contrarian pitcher on DraftKings at $8,000. Despite a brutal matchup with the Dodgers, King is the seventh-highest ranked pitcher in Stokastic’s Top Pitchers Tool, and the field is sleeping on him in a big way.
Although picking on the Dodgers is more often than not a fool’s errand, King has elite stuff, and his talent is worth taking shots on when he’s projected for minuscule ownership. Coming over from the Yankees in the Juan Soto, King was electric in New York last season, and there’s a lot to be excited about his prospects this season pitching in the NL West. Although walks have been a huge issue for King in his first three appearances, it was promising to see him give up just one free pass in his last start after allowing a massive 10 walks over 7.2 innings in his two previous outings. While there’s clearly risk in going up against an offense as potent as the Dodgers, King has massive strikeout upside at $8K, and there’s plenty to like about him as a differentiator in tournaments.
As of this writing, King is far and away the highest-graded leverage pitcher in Stokastic’s tools. He is currently projected to be a top-2 pitcher 9.5% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. With only 0.8% of lineups expected to roster him, it makes sense why King looks so good from a leverage perspective.
MLB DFS Contrarian Stack
Brewers-Orioles
Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 3.7%
Top Value Projection
DraftKings: 2.2%
Even with 11 games on tonight’s docket, only one team (Cincinnati) is projected for double digit ownership as a stack. Outside of jamming teams like the Reds and the Braves, it’s pretty easy to get contrarian on slates like tonight’s. While a bunch of teams are appealing from a contrarian perspective, none look as good as Baltimore does in a matchup with a popular Freddy Peralta.
Although stacking against a pitcher like Peralta is never advised, there’s a lot of game theory that goes into any MLB slate, and when a team like Baltimore catches Peralta on a bad day, it will more times than not make that pitcher play. The median projection for Baltimore is lower than those from teams like Cincinnati and Atlanta, but the upside is as high or higher than any other team in baseball. The Orioles’ ability to hit home runs and steal bases puts them in play on every slate, and tonight is no exception.
While their floor is undeniably lower than other stacks in their price range due to a matchup with Peralta, the Orioles are still coming in severely under-owned. As of this writing, Baltimore is projected to be the top stack 3.7% of the time this slate plays out, and only 1.6% of the field is projected to stack them.
Other MLB Notes for April 12
Playing off the Baltimore stack, my favorite one-off hitter on entire slate is Colton Cowser. Cowser has 71 DraftKings points over the past three games and priced at only $2,500, he will most likely be featured in my lineups. With no Coors in play, ownership isn’t much of an issue anywhere and getting different even with the popular stacks is pretty easy on such a big slate.
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