In the midst of a wild four-game early slate, the baseball gods bless us with a six-game MLB slate that locks at 7:10 p.m. ET on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stack and Top Pitchers tools, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best MLB DFS contrarian picks and stacks for today’s action.
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MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Thursday, June 13
MLB DFS Contrarian Pitcher
Marlins-Mets: Roddery Munoz
Stokastic’s Top 2 Pitcher Rate
DraftKings: 12.2%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $6,300
Unlike the early slate where there were zero good pitching options, we have three of the best pitchers in baseball toeing the rubber tonight in Luis Castillo, Joe Ryan and Garrett Crochet. While all three of those pitchers are fantastic plays on DraftKings, they are projected to be a combined 123% owned. That leaves multiple pitchers who are coming in underowned, with Marlins right-handed Roddery Munoz emerging as the most positively leveraged of the bunch.
Averaging 12.4 fantasy points per game while sporting a 5.95 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 22 strikeouts and 11 walks over 19.2 innings, Munoz’s stuff leaves a lot to be desired. I wish I could say Munoz’s underlying numbers inspired some confidence, but his 7.30 xERA isn’t reminding anyone of Cy Young. All that being said, MLB DFS is a price/ownership game, and on a short six-game slate, Munoz offers a ton of leverage. Not only does Munoz project to be a top-2 pitcher 12.2% of the time this slate plays out, but the Mets are also projected to be the highest-owned stack on the board.
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MLB DFS Contrarian Stack
Rangers-Dodgers: Dodgers
Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 13.8%
Ownership Projection
DraftKings: 8.5%
Similar to pitcher ownership tonight, three offenses are projected to get the overwhelming majority of love on DraftKings. With desirable expensive pitchers to spend up on, it makes sense that cheaper stacks like the Mets, Diamondbacks and Twins are projected to be so popular. The field is flocking to those three teams, so pretty much every other offense is projected to be underowned, and the Dodgers are the clear top contrarian stack on the board.
Matched up with Rangers right-hander Michael Lorenzen, the Dodgers don’t appear to be in as good of a spot as the more popular offenses on the slate. When peeking under the hood, however, it’s clear that Lorenzen is due for some pretty major regression. Lorenzen has a solid .305 WOBA and 3.05 ERA, but his .340 WOBA and 4.66 xERA are much more indicative of the pitcher he actually is. Though I respect Lorenzen as a pitcher, going into Los Angeles to face this iteration of the Dodgers lineup is about as brutal of a spot as he could find himself in. I don’t need to tell anyone how good Shohei Ohtani and co. are, but the Dodgers are falling through the cracks in a big way on DraftKings due to their robust price tags.
As of this writing, Los Angeles is projected to be the top stack 13.8% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings, but only 8.5% of lineups are expected to stack them.
Other Contrarian Stacks to Consider
Phillies, Angels, A’s, White Sox
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