We’re back with a six-game MLB night slate that locks at 7:05 p.m. ET. Using Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stack and Top Pitchers tools, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best MLB DFS contrarian picks and stacks for today’s action.
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MLB DFS Contrarian Stacks Today | March 30
MLB DFS Contrarian Pitcher
Cardinals-Dodgers: Lance Lynn
Stokastic’s Top Two Pitcher Rate
DraftKings: 13.2%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,600
As we’ve reached the third day of the season, the pitching options aren’t nearly as strong as they were on day one. With that being said, newly minted Cardinal Lance Lynn is the top contrarian pitcher on DraftKings at $8,600. Although rostering Lynn in the year 2024 is not a fun endeavor, he’s projected for a ton of leverage on a slate littered with risky options. While a tough matchup with the Dodgers lowers his median projection, Lynn has upside every time he steps on the mound, and the field isn’t getting to him at nearly the rate they should be.
Lynn is off the worst season of his career in 2023, posting a 5.73 ERA and 1.39 WHIP with 44 home runs allowed over 183.2 innings pitched. After pitching for the White Sox and Dodgers, Lynn is back to the friendly confines of St. Louis where he will don the Cardinals’ jersey for the first time since 2017. Despite struggling last season, however, it’s worth noting that Lynn was an extremely valuable fantasy commodity due to his strikeout upside. While this might not seem like the spot to take a risk on him, Stokastic’s tools have him graded as far and away the top leverage pitcher on the board.
Currently projected to be a top-two pitcher 13.2% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings, Lynn is only projected to be in 1.6% of lineups. While these numbers might slightly change as lineups come out, Lynn is undoubtedly one of the top tournament options on the slate.
MLB DFS High-Priced Contrarian Stack
Cardinals-Dodgers: Cardinals
Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 4.8%
Top Value Projection
DraftKings: 6.5%
Sticking with the Cardinals, St. Louis is the top contrarian stack on DraftKings. With weak pitching options scattered throughout the slate, there are plenty of good stacks to choose from across every price point. As such, most teams are projected to be either properly or slightly over-owned. The Cardinals are one of the outliers, however, and they are falling through the cracks in a big way on DraftKings.
After back to back matchups against Tyler Glasnow and Bobby Miller, the Cardinals now find themselves opposite Yoshinobu Yamamoto as the Japanese flame thrower looks to get back on track after getting lit up by the Padres in South Korea. Truth be told, I’m a big fan of Yamamoto long-term and think he has the stuff to be an upper echelon pitcher in the Majors. That said, he was not good in his MLB debut, and the Cardinals lineup, while inconsistent, has a ton of power on a night-to-night basis. Despite clear warning signs with Yamamoto, the field is uninterested in stacking the Cardinals on DraftKings.
As of this writing, St. Louis is projected to be the top stack 4.8% of the time this slate plays out. With only 3.6% of the field projected to stack them, it makes sense why the Cards look so good from a leverage perspective.
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MLB DFS Low-Priced Contrarian Stack
Rockies-Diamondbacks: Rockies
Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 8.6%
Stokastic’s Top Value Projection
DraftKings: 10.7%
With pretty much every offense on this slate coming in with close to proper ownership, the Rockies have emerged as the top low-priced contrarian stack on DraftKings. Similar to Lynn, rostering the Rockies on the road is difficult to stomach. Matchup up with Tommy Henry, however, there’s a lot to like about the Rockies in tournaments and the field isn’t as high on them as they should be.
Regardless of your opinion on the Rockies, they are projected to be the top stack 8.6% of the time this slate happens. Making them even more appealing, they are projected to be the top value stack 10.7% of the time on this slate.
Facing one of the worst pitchers on the slate in Henry, it’s surprising Colorado isn’t getting more love. With other more appealing stack options like the Diamondbacks and Cubs, however, it begins to make sense.
Want more MLB action? Check out these MLB player props & home run picks.
