We’re back with a seven-game MLB slate that locks at 7:10 p.m. ET on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stack and Top Pitchers tools, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best MLB DFS contrarian picks and stacks for today’s action.
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MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Monday, April 1
MLB DFS Contrarian Pitcher
Cardinals-Padres: Kyle Gibson
Stokastic’s Top Two Pitcher Rate
DraftKings: 13.3%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $7,900
As we are now onto the fifth day of the regular season, it’s no surprise that most pitching options come with many questions. With several young SPs in really tricky spots, it’s tough sledding on DraftKings tonight where we are forced to roster two pitchers. As such, pitcher ownership is pretty spread out, with most top options coming in correctly or slightly over-owned. Cardinals pitcher Kyle Gibson is one of the odd men out, and he’s the top contrarian pitcher on DraftKings at $7,900.
Although rostering Gibson in the year 2024 doesn’t seem like a fun endeavor, he stands out in a big way from a leverage standpoint on DraftKings. Gibson put up a 4.73 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 157:55 K:BB ratio over 192 innings. In need of starting pitching depth, the Cardinals signed Gibson in November in hopes that he can solidify their rotation.
While Gibson is not much more than a No. 4 starter at this point in his career, he isn’t getting nearly the love he should be getting on DraftKings. While a matchup with the Padres is far from an easy task, most pitchers on this slate are in unenviable spots, and San Diego profiles much better against left-handed pitching than against righties.
As of this writing, Gibson is far and away the highest-graded leverage pitcher in Stokastic’s tools. Currently projected to be a top-two pitcher 13.3% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings, Gibson is only projected to be in 6.4% of lineups. While these numbers might slightly change as lineups come out, Gibson is undoubtedly one of the top tournament options on the slate.
MLB DFS High-Priced Contrarian Stack
Red Sox-Athletics: Red Sox
Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 8.5%
Top Value Projection
DraftKings: 6.8%
With so many weak pitching options tonight, there are a ton of bats in great spots. Ownership on stacks is pretty spread out across the board, with the Yankees and Cardinals projected to be the highest-owned options. While those two teams undoubtedly look great, the Red Sox are the top high-priced contrarian stack on DraftKings.
Despite numerous signs pointing to upside here, Boston is more or less getting forgotten on DraftKings. Although Oakland is usually not a ballpark where I like prioritizing bats, a matchup with Joe Boyle and lack of ownership has the Red Sox looking like arguably the top tournament stack on the board. Although he was good in three starts towards the end of last season, Boyle has consistently struggled with walks, and this Boston lineup is not one in which you want to put runners on base.
While their floor might be lower than other stacks in their price range due to being in Oakland, the Red Sox are falling through the cracks in a big way on DraftKings. As of this writing, Boston is projected to be the top stack 8.5% of the time this slate plays out, and only 6.3% of the field is projected to stack them.
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MLB DFS Low-Priced Contrarian Stack
Red Sox-Athletics: Athletics
Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 3.8%
Stokastic’s Top Value Projection
DraftKings: 9.2%
Going to the other side of this game, Oakland is the top low-priced contrarian stack on DraftKings. While it’s unlikely to work out, the A’s are cheap, and offer a ton of leverage against a popular Tanner Houck.
Truth be told, Houck is the top pitcher for me on DraftKings tonight. That said, it’s not like Houck is some proven ace, and there’s always merit in stacking against a popular pitcher in MLB DFS.
Regardless of your opinion on the A’s, they are projected to be the top stack 3.8% of the time this slate happens. Making them even more appealing, they are projected to be the top value stack 9.2% of the time on this slate.
As with rostering Kyle Gibson, stacking the A’s in 2024 seems like a fool’s errand. This wouldn’t be the first time a chalky pitcher like Houck struggled in an “easy” spot, however, and stacking Oakland is one of the easiest ways to get different on DraftKings.
