In typical Tuesday fashion, we have a monster 12-game MLB slate that locks at 7:10 p.m. ET on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stack and Top Pitchers tools, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best MLB DFS contrarian picks and stacks for today’s action.
One of the keys to building a winning MLB DFS lineup is differentiation, so without contrarian picks like the ones below, you’ll struggle to separate from the pack in tournaments. Subscribe today for access to our industry-leading resources, including our lineup generator (available for NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA), our DFS simulation tools (available for NFL, NBA, MLB, PGA and MMA) and our industry-leading projections for every sport.
For a limited time only, you can use promo code MLBSIMSWEEK to get access to one week of our industry-leading MLB Sims Max, Sims Data or Data packages for 40% off by clicking here!
MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Tuesday, June 11
MLB DFS Contrarian Pitcher
Giants-Astros: Ronel Blanco
Stokastic’s Top 2 Pitcher Rate
DraftKings: 10.5%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,700
Pitcher ownership is extremely consolidated, even with 12 games on the docket and 24 pitchers in play. Louis Varland, Paul Skenes, Bryan Woo, Zack Wheeler and Tylor Megill are projected to be a combined 141.6% owned on DraftKings. Though all five of those starters look good for various reasons, that leaves multiple pitchers who are coming in underowned on DraftKings. Ronel Blanco is one of those, and he is the top contrarian arm on the board.
Blanco is averaging 19.3 fantasy points per game on the heels of a 2.78 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, .265 WOBA, 59 strikeouts and 27 walks across 64.2 innings. Though he’s dropped back-to-back starts after starting the season 5-0, Blanco finds himself in a get-right spot tonight, matched up with the Giants in pitcher-friendly San Francisco. While it should be noted that Blanco’s 3.53 xERA and .300 xWOBA call for some negative regression, this is not the spot I expect that to happen.
Blanco is currently projected to be a top-2 pitcher 10.5% of the time this slate plays out. With only 1.5% of lineups expected to roster him, Blanco is one of the best differentiators on the entire slate.
If you need some more tips on how to use the Post-Contest Simulator to improve your lineup study process, Steve Buzzard has a great guide here on how to maximize your lessons learned from the Sims! Check it out HERE.
MLB DFS Contrarian Stack
Blue Jays-Brewers: Blue Jays
Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 5.6%
Ownership Projection
DraftKings: 2.7%
With no Coors Field tonight and no offense really separating from the pack, ownership among stacks is extremely spread out. As of this writing, only the Diamondbacks are projected for double-digit ownership, with most of the other offenses projected to be somewhere between 2% and 8% owned. Within that group lies Toronto, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and co. emerging as the top contrarian stack on the board.
Despite a relatively loaded lineup, playing the Blue Jays these days is often disappointing, dating back to last season. Toronto currently ranks 24th in the majors in runs, and the Jays have been just as underwhelming from a DFS perspective. All that being said, Toronto is in a great spot tonight against an unproven pitcher making his MLB debut, and the field is showing little interest in getting to the Blue Jays. Though Carlos Rodriguez has pitched well recently in Triple-A, he’s not that far removed from really struggling at the minor league level. As pitiful as the Jays offense can appear, there is still big-time upside up and down their lineup, and there’s really no reason for them to be one of the lowest-owned stacks on the slate.
As of this writing, Toronto is projected to be the top stack 5.6% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings, but only 2.7% of lineups are expected to stack them.
Other Contrarian Stacks to Consider
Brewers, A’s, Rockies, Rangers
Looking for a way to boost your MLB DFS success? Check out our MLB DFS Sims Tools! Our simulation tools have helped numerous pros and users win big in DraftKings and FanDuel DFS contests across several sports, and they can help you too! Don’t believe us? Read up on the Stokastic Hall of Fame and see for yourself.
