After a two-week hiatus, I’m back just in time for a monster 12-game MLB Friday night slate on DraftKings. What was once a 13-game slate has been cut to 12 with the Yankees-Rangers game getting postponed. By leveraging Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stacks and Top Pitchers Tools, we can sift through the player pool to identify today’s most promising contrarian picks and stacks.
Winning MLB DFS tournaments hinges on strategic differentiation. It can be tough to make your lineup stand out without unique contrarian picks like the ones we’ll highlight. Subscribe now to access our premium resources, including the Lineup Generator, our MLB DFS simulation tools and our industry-leading MLB DFS projections.
MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Friday, Aug. 9
MLB DFS Contrarian Pitcher
Phillies-Diamondbacks: Zack Wheeler
Stokastic’s Top 2 Pitcher Rate
DraftKings: 12.8%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $10,200
Even with a whopping 12 games in play, ownership at pitcher is expected to be extremely condensed. As of this writing, newly minted Dodger Jack Flaherty and Giants left-hander Robbie Ray are projected to be a combined 67.4% owned on DraftKings. With Carlos Rodon currently projected to be the third-highest-owned pitcher on the slate, expect ownership on Flaherty and Ray to only rise as Rodon is now out of play. While Flaherty will be the highest owned, expect to see a lot of lineups with the Flaherty/Ray combination. That leaves a number of pitchers who are falling through the cracks like Zack Wheeler.
Although DFS isn’t as simple as just picking the best players, Wheeler has a legit argument as the top overall pitcher on the slate. Flaherty and Ray are in better matchups, but Wheeler is averaging 21.8 DraftKings points per game while sporting a 2.77 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 148 strikeouts and only 41 walks. Wheeler is striking out hitters at a 27.3% clip, and he’s currently behind only Chris Sale and Paul Skenes in the National League Cy Young race. Simply put, Wheeler continues to be phenomenal, and the field is sleeping on him tonight.
Coming off one of his best starts of the season, Wheeler not getting more love is a little surprising. He has a tough matchup with Arizona, but Stokastic’s Top Pitchers Tool has Wheeler being a top-2 pitcher 12.8% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. With only 7.5% of lineups expected to roster him, it’s wheels up for Wheeler in GPPs.
Looking to boost your lineup study with the Post-Contest Simulator? Explore Steve Buzzard’s guide on how to use simulations to enhance your results.
MLB DFS Contrarian Stack
Astros-Red Sox: Astros
Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 6.0%
Ownership Projection
DraftKings: 4.5%
Unlike at pitcher where ownership is pretty condensed, stack exposure is spread out. Only the Braves are projected to be double-digit owned as a stack, and that checks out since they are taking on Tanner Gordon in Coors Field. Even the Braves themselves are only projected to be 10.5% owned as a stack, with the Dodgers and Blue Jays the only other teams projected to be even 5% owned. While ownership will likely be a bit more consolidated than the projections show, it’s clear that pretty much every offense on this slate outside of the Braves should be somewhat contrarian. That said, Houston currently stands out as the top contrarian stack in GPPs.
After starting out the season as one of the best pitchers in baseball, Red Sox right-hander Tanner Houck has seen the proverbial wheels fall off. Houck has walked multiple hitters in five straight starts, and he sports an ugly 4.78 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 18 strikeout and 16 walks over that stretch. Houck isn’t a bad pitcher by any means, but his current form suggests that attacking hitters against him is a smart move in tournaments. Houck’s name value is playing a role in Houston coming in underowned, and when the Astros do get to Houck, it’s likely to be with power and home runs.
As of this writing, Houston is projected to be the top stack 6.0% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. With only 4.5% of lineups expected to stack them, Houston provides a ton of leverage as a stack in GPPs.
Other Contrarian Stacks to Consider
Giants, Mets, Guardians, Rockies
