We’re back with a nine-game MLB slate that locks at 7:10 p.m. ET on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stack and Top Pitchers tools, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best MLB DFS contrarian picks and stacks for today’s action.
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MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Monday, June 24
MLB DFS Contrarian Pitcher
Pirates-Reds: Carson Spiers
Stokastic’s Top 2 Pitcher Rate
DraftKings: 6.2%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $6,400
Even with nine games on tonight’s docket, a large number of pitchers are near the top of the ownership board. As of this writing, six pitchers are projected to be at least 20% owned on DraftKings. Reds rookie right-hander Carson Spiers is not one of those pitchers, and he’s the top contrarian arm on the slate. Averaging a deceiving 9.9 DraftKings points per game, Spiers’ first career start came last week against the same Pirates team he faces tonight. Though he left a lot to be desired in last week’s outing, Spiers was better than the box score indicates, and he’s getting virtually no love on DraftKings despite his $6,400 price tag.
Full disclosure, I played Spiers in this exact same spot last week. After struggling early, he finished with 10.7 DraftKings points as the Reds let him get up to 104 pitches. Prior to that start, Spiers had been phenomenal out of the bullpen, and overall he sports a 3.20 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 20strikeout and five walks over 25.1 innings. While last week’s start is bringing those numbers down a bit, it was extremely encouraging to see Spiers go six innings in a start he didn’t have his best stuff. There’s definitely some built-in risk going with an unproven Spiers over one of the many other proven starting pitchers on this slate. However, the matchup is great, and his price tag opens up doors to roster construction that otherwise would be shut.
Spiers is currently projected to be a top-2 pitcher 6.2% of the time this slate plays out. With only 1.0% of lineups expected to roster him, Spiers is the top tournament arm tonight.
If you need some more tips on how to use the Post-Contest Simulator to improve your lineup study process, Steve Buzzard has a great guide here on how to maximize your lessons learned from the Sims! Check it out HERE — or watch the video below.
MLB DFS Contrarian Stack
Dodgers-White Sox: White Sox
Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 2.3%
Ownership Projection
DraftKings: 2.0%
With the Rockies hitting the road and Coors Field taking a hiatus for the week, we’re back to a more normal slate, with stack ownership projected to be more evenly spread out. Only two offenses are currently projected for double-digit ownership, with the field eyeing Kansas City and Pittsburgh as the two top stacks. Aside from the Royals and Pirates, pretty much every other team will come in somewhat contrarian. The White Sox are one of those matched up with James Paxton and are the top GPP stack on the board.
Though we’re long past the days of Paxton actually getting ownership in DFS, the field has been rostering bats against him pretty aggressively recently. Coming off a disastrous start against the Pirates on June 5, Paxton was a popular stacking opponent against the Rangers and Rockies in his subsequent two starts. Naturally, Paxton turned in two of his better outings of the season, and as a result, the masses have no interest in getting to the White Sox against him tonight. While that’s an understandable take considering it is the White Sox, Chicago’s lineup still sets up much better against left-handed pitching, and Paxton is due for some negative regression sooner rather than later.
Although Paxton has seemingly turned his season around over his past two starts, his underlying numbers suggest that he’s been getting by with some smoke and mirrors. Paxton comes into tonight with a 3.65 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and .302 wOBA through 15 starts. Paxton’s 4.64 xERA and .339 xwOBA more represent the pitcher he actually is, and when the White Sox do get to Paxton in this spot, no one will be on them.
Other Contrarian Stacks to Consider
Giants, Nationals, Rangers, Brewers
