We’re back with a massive 10-game MLB Monday night slate and no real weather concerns anywhere. Using Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool and Top Pitchers Tool, we’ll dive into the player pool to uncover the most effective contrarian picks and stacks for today’s MLB games.
Success in MLB DFS tournaments often relies on differentiation. To make your lineup stand out, it’s essential to incorporate unique, contrarian picks. Subscribe now to access our premium resources, including the Lineup Generator, our MLB DFS Sims and the BEST MLB DFS projections out there.
MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Tuesday, September 3
MLB DFS Contrarian Pitcher
Guardians-Royals: Brady Singer
Stokastic’s Top 2 Pitcher Rate
DraftKings: 11.5%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $7,800
Even with 10 games in play and a bunch of expensive bats to spend up on, ownership at pitcher is projected to be concentrated. As of this writing, Chris Sale, Paul Skenes and Luis Castillo are projected to be a combined 110.2% owned on DraftKings. While Sale will be by far the highest owned (62.7% projected), expect to see a lot of lineups with some combination of those three pitchers. As such, we’re left with a bunch of pitchers who are projected to be under owned.
Brady Singer is averaging 16.3 DraftKings points per game while sporting a 3.36 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 147 strikeouts and 41 walks over 152.2 innings this season. After years of struggling, Singer has finally broken through as a bona fide major league starting pitcher. Though his 4.39 xERA suggests some regression is coming, Singer has pitched over his head all year, and there’s no reason to expect anything different tonight. After Sale, Skenes and Castillo, the pitching options on this slate all come with major question marks. Considering the success Singer has had this season, the field is sleeping on him in a major way on DraftKings.
Stokastic’s Top Pitchers Tool projects Singer to be a top-2 pitcher 11.5% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. With only 5.2% of lineups projected to roster him, Singer is one of the top differentiators on the board.
Want to enhance your lineup analysis with the Post-Contest Simulator? Explore Steve Buzzard’s guide to learn how to use simulations to fine-tune your results.
MLB DFS Contrarian Stack
Phillies-Blue Jays
Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 7.8%
Ownership Projection
DraftKings: 4.8%
Unlike the pitcher ownership situation, stack exposure is expected to be spread out on DraftKings. As of this writing, the Dodgers are projected to be the highest-owned stack on DraftKings at 12.8% facing Reid Detmers in Anaheim. Aside from the Dodgers, no team is projected to be double-digit owned, and aside from them and maybe the Braves and Yankees, every other stack will be somewhat contrarian.
Matched up with grizzled veteran Chris Bassitt, the Phillies are in a sneaky good spot. Bassitt has been mediocre this season, averaging 14.7 DraftKings points per game and recording a 4.27 ERA over 151.2 innings. Those are mediocre numbers, and on a lot of slates the Phillies would be a popular stack. With an expensive Sale and other offenses in really good spots, Bryce Harper and co. are simply falling through the cracks. While they might not project quite as well from a value perspective as teams like the Dodgers and Braves, the Phillies’ ceiling in this spot is arguably the highest of any team.
The Phillies are projected to be the top stack 7.8% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings, but only 4.8% of lineups are expected to stack them.
Other Contrarian Stacks to Consider
Angels, Red Sox, Cardinals, Mets
