With July 4th on the horizon, we’ve got another massive 11-game MLB slate on Wednesday that locks at 7:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings to cap off the work week. Using Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stack and Top Pitchers tools, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best MLB DFS contrarian picks and stacks for today’s action.
One of the keys to building a winning MLB DFS lineup is differentiation, so without contrarian picks like the ones below, you’ll struggle to separate from the pack in tournaments. Subscribe today for access to our industry-leading resources, including our lineup generator (available for NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA), our DFS simulation tools (available for NFL, NBA, MLB, PGA and MMA) and our industry-leading projections for every sport.
MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Wednesday, July 3
MLB DFS Contrarian Pitcher
Diamondbacks-Dodgers: Gavin Stone
Stokastic’s Top 2 Pitcher Rate
DraftKings: 11.1%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,500
Even with another 11 games on tonight’s docket, ownership at pitcher is expected to be extremely concentrated. As of this writing, Chris Sale, Davis Daniel, Logan Gilbert, Zack Wheeler and Carlos Rodon are projected to be a combined 131.2% owned on DraftKings. While Sale will undoubtedly be the highest owned, every other pitcher in that group will also get a significant amount of love. Though all five of those pitchers look good in their own right, that leaves us with a whole slate full of arms that are falling through the cracks. Amongst that group sits Gavin Stone, and the Dodgers right-hander is the top contrarian arm on the slate.
Coming off a 2023 in which Stone struggled at the major league level, he’s pitched at an All-Star level so far in 2024. Stone comes into tonight’s action averaging 18.4 DraftKings points per game while sporting a 2.33 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, .268 WOBA and 19.5% K% over 89 innings of work. Simply put, Stone has been a revelation for a Dodgers team that continues to deal with a plethora of injuries to its starting rotation. Though Stone’s underlying numbers call for some negative regression, he’s got a ton of win equity pitching for the Dodgers, and he’s posted at least six strikeouts in five of his last six outings. While I’m not completely buying what Stone is selling for the long term, he’s in great form right now, and the field is basically crossing him off on DraftKings.
Stone is currently projected to be a top-2 pitcher 11.1% of the time this slate plays out. With only 3.0% of lineups expected to roster him, Miller is worth looking at as a differentiator in tournaments.
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MLB DFS Contrarian Stack
Brewers-Rockies: Rockies
Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 7.2%
Ownership Projection
DraftKings: 4.6%
Unlike at pitcher where five players are getting the majority of love, stack ownership is spread out. Aside from the Brewers, no team is expected to pull double digit ownership as a stack. Even Milwaukee is projected to be just 10.2% owned, and considering their exorbitant price tags, it’s not surprising that no offense is pulling away from the pack. With ownership so spread out, pretty much every stack of the board is going to come in contrarian, with many of them standing out as good spots to get to in tournaments. The Rockies look like the best of the bunch, however, and facing Brewers right-hander Colin Rea, Colorado is my top GPP stack on the board.
While I’m clearly not buying Rea’s recent success, I must give credit where credit is due and acknowledge how well he has pitched in three out of his past four starts. Aside from a clunker against the Padres, Rea was phenomenal in starts against the Reds, Cubs and Blue Jays. Given his recent game log, I wouldn’t be surprised if Rea actually ends up getting some love in a great matchup on paper against the Rockies. That’s certainly not the side that I will be on, however, as the regression monster is coming fast and hard for Rea. Though Rea’s actual 3.61 ERA and .316 WOBA aren’t shabby, his 5.31 xERA and .358 xWOBA are a much better implication of the pitcher he actually is.
As of this writing, the Rockies are projected to be the top stack 7.2% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. Despite that high number, only 4.6% of lineups are expected to stack them, making them the clear top tournament stack on the board.
Other Contrarian Stacks to Consider
Diamondbacks, Royals, Tigers, Orioles, Giants (leverage)
