We’re back with a 10-game MLB slate and no real weather concerns anywhere. Using Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stack and Top Pitchers tools, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best MLB DFS contrarian picks and stacks for today’s action.
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MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Wednesday, July 10
MLB DFS Contrarian Pitcher
Dodgers-Phillies: Cristopher Sanchez
Stokastic’s Top 2 Pitcher Rate
DraftKings: 12.5%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,000
Even with 10 games in play and viable pitchers across every price point, ownership at pitcher is once again expected to be concentrated. As of this writing, Framber Valdez, Frankie Montas, Nick Pivetta and Tobias Myers are projected to be a combined 116.4% owned on DraftKings. Though Valdez and Montas will be the two highest-owned arms, some combination of those four pitchers will be in a good number of lineups. That leaves us with plenty of contrarian pitchers, and Phillies left-hander Cristopher Sanchez is the top pitcher to target in tournaments.
Sanchez is averaging 16.2 DraftKings points per game while sporting a 2.96 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and .281 WOBA over 97.1 innings this season. Though Sanchez’s 3.53 xERA call for some regression, he’s been phenomenal for a Phillies staff that has looked like the best in baseball. The Dodgers are a tough matchup, but Sanchez has pitched well in plenty of tough spots this season, and it’s not as if the pitchers who are picking up ownership tonight are the safest plays in the world. Understanding that both Valdez and Montas are in much better spots on paper, Sanchez has undoubtedly been the best pitcher of the three in 2024.
Despite his success this season, Sanchez is only projected to be in 2.3% of lineups on DraftKings tonight but has a 11.5% chance of being a top-2 pitcher.
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MLB DFS Contrarian Stack
Nationals-Mets: Nationals
Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 4.3%
Ownership Projection
DraftKings: 2.4%
Similar to pitcher ownership, stack exposure is expected to be pretty concentrated despite it being a 10-game slate. Cincinnati, Texas and Boston are currently projected to be a combined 35% owned on DraftKings, while other teams like the Mets and Astros are also getting some love. After that, pretty much every other offense is projected to be low owned, including the Nationals, who are the top contrarian stack on the board.
With James Wood already hitting third in Washington’s lineup, there’s a ton to like about the Nationals right now. There was already a lot to like about the Nats even before Wood got called up, and with him, they’ve flashed even more upside. Though I’m not overly excited about a matchup with Luis Severino, I’m also not afraid of it either, and given the Nationals’ propensity to steal bases, their ceiling is right there with the top teams on the slate. Despite a very good outing from Jose Quintana last night, I much prefer the Nationals against right-handed pitching, and the field is sleeping on them on DraftKings.
The Nationals are projected to be the top stack 4.3% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. With just 2.4% of lineups expected to stack them, they stand out in a big way from a leverage perspective.
Other Contrarian Stacks to Consider
Marlins, Pirates, Diamondbacks
