Happy Monday! We’re back with a nine-game MLB slate and no major weather concerns anywhere. Using Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stack Tool and Top Pitchers Tool, let’s get into the player pool to find the best contrarian picks and stacks for today’s MLB action.
Differentiation is key to creating a winning MLB DFS lineup. Without contrarian picks like the ones listed below, it’s difficult to stand out in tournaments. Subscribe today to access our premier resources, including our Lineup Generator (available for NFL, NBA, MLB, and PGA), our DFS simulation tools (available for NFL, NBA, MLB, PGA and MMA) and our industry-leading projections for every sport.
MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Monday, July 22
MLB DFS Contrarian Pitcher
Brewers-Cubs: Javier Assad
Stokastic’s Top 2 Pitcher Rate
DraftKings: 9.2%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $7,11
With nine games in play and plenty of enticing pitching options, ownership at pitcher is expected to be pretty spread out. While Hunter Greene will probably end up being the highest owned, seven other pitchers are projected to be in at least 12% of lineups. Cubs right-hander Javier Assad is not in that group.
Coming off two rough outings, the field has little interest in getting to Assad. He is averaging 13.7 DraftKings points per game while sporting a 3.27 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 79 strikeouts and 35 walks over 85.1 innings this season.
After starting out as one of the biggest surprises this year, Assad has come back down to earth over his past eight starts. He has been tagged for 10 home runs during that stretch, and with a combined negative-9.9 fantasy points over his past two starts, he’s not a comfortable roster in DFS right now. All that being said, Assad is one of the cheapest starting pitchers on the board tonight, and with some expensive bats in really good spots, his $7,100 price tag starts to look more intriguing.
As of this writing, Stokastic’s tools have Assad being a top-2 pitcher 9.2% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. With only 1.0% of lineups expected to roster him, Assad is a solid differentiator in GPPs.
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MLB DFS Contrarian Stack
Phillies-Twins: Phillies
Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 6.4%
Ownership Projection
DraftKings: 3.6%
Unlike at pitcher where ownership is pretty spread out, stack exposure is pretty condensed. As of this writing, both the Red Sox and Astros are projected to be a combined 23% owned as stacks on DraftKings. Expect those numbers to be even higher in single-entry contests, with the field generally flocking even more to the highest-projected players. Though both Houston and Boston are in really good spots, there are multiple stacks serving as contrarian options, and the Phillies are the top team on the board in that regard.
Matched up with Bailey Ober, it’s not particularly surprising that the Phillies aren’t projected to get a ton of love on this slate. With offenses like the Astros, Red Sox, Rangers and Brewers in much better spots on paper, most people will have a tough time spending all the way up on an uber-expensive Phillies stack. Ober is a good pitcher and generally not someone to pick on, but he’s been beaten up a couple times this season, and most of the damage against him has been via the long ball. Though it’s unlikely Ober will get torched here, when the Phillies do get to him, it will usually be with home runs — that’s gold for DraftKings purposes.
The Phillies’ likelihood of success might not be quite as high as some of the teams picking up ownership. However, their upside when they do get there is comparable to any other team on the slate. Philadelphia is projected to be the top stack 6.4% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings, but only 3.6% of lineups are expected to stack it.
Other Contrarian Stacks to Consider
Angels, A’s, Rockies, Twins
