In typical mid-summer fashion, we have an 11-game MLB slate with weather concerns all over. Using Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stack and Top Pitchers tools, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best MLB DFS contrarian picks and stacks for today’s action.
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MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Tuesday, July 9
MLB DFS Contrarian Pitcher
Mariners-Padres: Logan Gilbert
Stokastic’s Top 2 Pitcher Rate
DraftKings: 9.8%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,700
Even with 11 games in play and intriguing pitchers across every price point, ownership at pitcher is again expected to be pretty concentrated. Braves left-hander Chris Sale is back on tonight’s slate after getting his start pushed back, and he’s again expected to get a ton of love as the clear top starter on DraftKings. After Sale, Zac Gallen, Nick Lodolo, Bailey Ober and Yusei Kikuchi are all projected to be in a good number of lineups. With weather concerns for both Lodolo and Ober, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Gallen and Kikuchi become even more popular as the day goes on. Noticeably missing from that group is Mariners right-hander Logan Gilbert, and the first-time All-Star is the top contrarian pitcher to target in tournaments.
Gilbert is averaging 19.9 DraftKings points per game while sporting a 2.91 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 108 strikeouts and 24 walks over 117.2 innings across 18 outings this season. Simply put, Gilbert has solidified himself as one of the top young righties in all of baseball. Considering how volatile most of the other pitchers on tonight’s slate are, it’s surprising how much Gilbert is falling through the cracks on DraftKings. Though Gilbert always looks better at home, San Diego is far from Coors Field.
Despite his success this season, Gilbert is only projected to be in 3.3% of lineups on DraftKings tonight but has a 9.8% chance of being a top-2 pitcher.
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MLB DFS Contrarian Stack
Braves-Diamondbacks: Braves
Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 3.0%
Ownership Projection
DraftKings: 1.9%
I don’t love the Braves by any means here. Unfortunately, the only stacks that stand out from a leverage perspective in Stokastic’s tools are from games that have major weather concerns. Though the Twins will look great if their projected ownership holds, it’s likely that that game will get postponed. With that in mind, Zac Gallen is projected to be the highest-owned pitcher on the slate, and while that makes sense at his cheap $8,700 price tag, it leaves a Braves stack that is pretty much unowned on DraftKings.
Atlanta’s offense has undoubtedly underperformed this season. Coming off a 2023 campaign in which the Braves set all sorts of MLB records on offense, they’ve come back down to earth in a big way in 2024. Missing Ronald Acuna Jr. or Michael Harris isn’t helping matters right now, but it’s not like Atlanta was lighting the world on fire when those players were healthy. That being said, with hitters like Marcell Ozuna, Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley and Matt Olson, the Braves’ upside is right there with the top teams in baseball. Just because they haven’t shown it as much this season doesn’t mean it’s not there on any given night. Though I’m never excited to pick on a pitcher of Gallen’s pedigree, he just recently came back from a hamstring injury, and his underlying numbers aren’t all that impressive anyways.
The Braves are only projected to be the top stack 3.0% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. With just 1.9% of lineups expected to stack them, however, they still stand out in a big way from a leverage perspective.
Other Contrarian Stacks to Consider
Twins (weather permitting), Marlins, Pirates, Mets
