We’re back with a massive 14-game Friday night MLB slate and no major weather concerns anywhere. With Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool and Top Pitchers Tool, we’ll analyze the player pool to find the most effective contrarian picks and stacks for today’s MLB games.
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MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Friday, August 23
MLB DFS Contrarian Pitcher
Rays-Dodgers: Bobby Miller
Stokastic’s Top 2 Pitcher Rate
DraftKings: 8.9%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $7,800
Even with 14 games in play and 28 pitchers to choose from, ownership at pitcher is projected to be concentrated. As of this writing, Chris Sale and Carlos Rodon are projected to be a combined 96.2% owned on DraftKings. While Sale will probably end up the highest-owned pitcher on the slate, expect to see a lot of lineups with the Sale/Rodon combination. Although there’s a lot to like about both Sale and Rodon tonight, we’re left with quite a few pitchers who are coming in under-owned on DraftKings, one of them being Bobby Miller.
Truth be told, I also like the Tampa side of this game as a high-upside stack against Miller in large-field GPPs. Aside from a dominant season debut against the Cardinals, Miller has only reached 10 DraftKings points one other time this entire season. While he missed a bunch of time with a shoulder injury, he simply hasn’t been good in 2024. The only reason Miller is even in the Dodgers rotation right now is because of injuries to Tyler Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and he’s yet to inspire much confidence that he can turn things around.
All that being said, Miller is in the ultimate get-right spot matched up with a Rays lineup that has struck out more than other any team in the majors over the past 30 days. Considering Tampa just got carved up by Joe Boyle, Mitch Spence and Osvaldo Bido, all three games in Oakland, it’s not crazy to think that Miller will right the ship tonight.
Stokastic’s Top Pitchers Tool projects Miller to be a top-2 pitcher 8.9% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. With only 4.5% of lineups projected to roster him, Miller is one of the top differentiators on the board.
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MLB DFS Contrarian Stack
Diamondbacks-Red Sox: Red Sox
Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 6.2%
Ownership Projection
DraftKings: 2.7%
Unlike ownership at pitcher where two players are getting the majority of love, stack exposure is spread out on DraftKings. As of this writing, no team is projected to be double-digit owned as a stack, leaving plenty of outside-the-box offenses to choose from. As a result of Sale and Rodon pulling so much ownership, a bunch of expensive offenses are projected to be severely under-owned. Boston tops that list right now.
At first glance, a matchup with Diamondbacks right-hander Ryne Nelson doesn’t seem optimal. In nine starts since the beginning of July, Nelson is averaging 20.14 DraftKings points per game while sporting a 2.73 ERA, 56 strikeouts and only 11 walks over 56 innings. When taking a deeper look, however, it’s clear that Nelson has been the beneficiary of some good luck, and when things go badly for Nelson, they tend to be really bad. While Nelson has had some high strong outings over this recent nine-game stretch, he also struggled mightily against the Pirates and Royals, and Boston has a ton of upside when they do get to him here.
The Red Sox are projected to be the top stack 6.2% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings, but only 2.7% of lineups are stacking them.
Other Contrarian Stacks to Consider
Twins, Astros, Rays, Mariners
