We return with an eight-game MLB slate that could potentially be cut down to seven due to bad weather looking in Cincinnati. Using Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool and Top Pitchers Tool, let’s go over the player pool to uncover the best contrarian picks and stacks today.
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MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Monday, July 29
MLB DFS Contrarian Pitcher
Rangers-Cardinals: Andre Pallante
Stokastic’s Top 2 Pitcher Rate
DraftKings: 11.0%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $7,800
Even with eight games in play, ownership at pitcher is expected to be extremely condensed. As of this writing, Pirates phenom Paul Skenes and Red Sox right-hander Nick Pivetta are projected to be a combined 91.7% owned on DraftKings. While Skenes will be the highest owned, expect to see a lot of lineups with the Skenes/Pivetta combination. That leaves a number of pitchers who are falling through the cracks like Andre Pallante, who is the top contrarian pitcher to target in GPPs.
Pallante comes into tonight’s action sporting a 3.92 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 44 strikeouts and 21 walks. Pallante’s 3.66 xERA suggests that he might even be slightly better than his actual numbers imply. After starting the season in the Cardinals bullpen, Pallante has acclimated himself well as a starter. It hasn’t all been rainbows and sunshine, but Pallante has multiple 20-DraftKings-point performances over the past couple of months. While I don’t love the spot Pallante is in against the Rangers, pretty much every pitcher on this slate outside of Skenes has question marks. With pitchers like Alec Marsh and Colin Rea getting love, the field is completely sleeping on a similarly talented Pallante.
Stokastic’s tools currently have Pallante being a top-2 pitcher 11.0% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. With only 1.0% of lineups expected to roster him, Pallante is a solid differentiator in GPPs.
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MLB DFS Contrarian Stack
Red Sox-Mariners: Red Sox
Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 5.6%
Ownership Projection
DraftKings: 2.6%
Unlike at pitcher where ownership is pretty condensed, stack exposure is expected to be pretty spread out. Only the Royals are currently projected to be double-digit owned as a stack, taking on Chris Flexen at home. As a result of Coors Field not being on the slate and a bunch of offenses in similarly good spots, we are left with quite a few teams that are coming in with positive leverage, and the Red Sox sit atop that group.
Full disclosure, targeting bats against Logan Gilbert is more often than not a fool’s errand. Gilbert is very, very good, and it’s not surprising to see the field basically having no interest in stacking Boston on DraftKings. That being said, Gilbert is much better at home, and that makes sense considering he pitches in the best pitcher’s park in baseball. Though he’s still good on the road, Gilbert is much more susceptible to getting hit hard when he’s away from home. If this matchup were in Seattle, my interest in Boston would be minimal. Considering the game is in Boston, however, the Red Sox’s upside is significantly higher. The Red Sox usually get to the top of the leaderboard via home runs and stolen bases, and with only 2.6% of lineups expected to stack the Red Sox on DraftKings, the path to the top of GPPs is a clean one.
Other Contrarian Stacks to Consider
Mets, Pirates, Astros
