MLB brings a nine-game slate tonight, and the weather is looking good across the board. Utilizing Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool and Top Pitchers Tool, we’ll explore the player pool to identify the most impactful contrarian picks and stacks for today’s MLB matchups.
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MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Tuesday, August 27
MLB DFS Contrarian Pitcher
Padres-Cardinals: Dylan Cease
Stokastic’s Top 2 Pitcher Rate
DraftKings: 20.6%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,00
It’s rare to see the third-highest ranked pitcher in Stokastic’s Top Pitchers Tool come in as the highest-leveraged pitcher on a slate, but that’s how the cookie crumbles for Padres ace Dylan Cease tonight. With only nine games in play, it’s no surprise that ownership at pitcher is once again expected to be extremely condensed. As of this writing, Logan Gilbert and Jack Flaherty project to be a combined 75% owned on DraftKings. While Gilbert will undoubtedly end up being the highest owned, expect to see Gilbert and Flaherty in lot of lineups. As such, Cease is falling through the cracks.
Cease is averaging 21.3 DraftKings points per game while sporting a 3.43 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 193 strikeout and 51 walks over 154.2 innings. Despite a recent rough stretch, Cease has unquestionably been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season, and his MLB DFS upside is matched by only a few other pitchers in baseball. While he’s not in the greatest spot against the Cardinals in St. Louis, Cease is matchup-proof if he has his best stuff, and he’s always a candidate to be the highest-scoring pitcher on whatever slate he’s on.
As of this writing, Stokastic’s tools have Cease being a top-2 pitcher 20.6% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. While he’s not getting completely forgotten about, only 13.9% of lineups are expected to roster Cease, making him one of the best differentiator in GPPs.
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MLB DFS Contrarian Stack
Mets-Diamondbacks: Mets
Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 5.9%
Ownership Projection
DraftKings: 4.7%
Truth be told, the only stack that looks good from a leverage perspective in Stokastic’s tools is the Rockies. Considering the Rockies are also projected to be the second-highest-owned stack on the board, we will pivot elsewhere. Unlike at pitcher where ownership is condensed, stack exposure is spread out. Even with Coors Field tonight, there is no consensus top stack, as the Marlins, Rockies, Dodgers, Rangers and Blue Jays are all projected for a good amount of ownership. With ownership expected to be so spread out and Colorado looking so good in the tools, there aren’t as many stacks coming in with real leverage. That said, there are a couple spots that look to be worth targeting.
Matched up against Brandon Pfaadt, the Mets projecting for little ownership is not surprising. What is a bit surprising, however, is that the Mets currently have a 5.9% chance to be the top stack on tonight’s slate. That number is right in line with teams like the Rangers and Blue Jays, both of whom are garnering much more interest from the field. While Pfaadt is good and not generally a pitcher worth attacking, he’s coming off a rough outing in Miami against the Marlins, and the Mets offense has a ton of upside in DFS given their propensity to hit home runs. Though the Mets aren’t as likely to succeed as some of the other offenses in better spots, their upside is massive and they have a path to the top of GPPs.
The Mets are projected to be the top stack 5.9% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings, but only 4.7% of lineups are expected to stack them.
Other Contrarian Stacks to Consider
Rays, Orioles, Giants
