TGIF! In typical Friday night fashion, we’ve got a massive 12-game MLB slate and no major weather concerns anywhere. Using Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stack and Top Pitchers tools, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best MLB DFS contrarian picks and stacks for today’s action.
One of the keys to building a winning MLB DFS lineup is differentiation, so without contrarian picks like the ones below, you’ll struggle to separate from the pack in tournaments. Subscribe today for access to our industry-leading resources, including our lineup generator (available for NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA), our DFS simulation tools (available for NFL, NBA, MLB, PGA and MMA) and our industry-leading projections for every sport.
MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Friday, July 12
MLB DFS Contrarian Pitcher
Marlins-Reds: Carson Spiers
Stokastic’s Top 2 Pitcher Rate
DraftKings: 4.6%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $7,000
With 12 games in play and a bunch of viable arms to choose from, ownership at pitcher is expected to be pretty spread out. As of this writing, Garrett Crochet, Sean Manaea, Cole Ragans, Freddy Peralta, Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan are all projected to be in a good number of lineups. While Crochet seems to be getting the most love, all six pitchers are really strong options. That said, Crochet, Peralta, Gray and Ryan are all expensive on DraftKings, while Ragans and Manaea aren’t exactly cheap.
Today’s slate also features some expensive bats in really good spots, so taking on some risk and spending down at SP2 is an intriguing way to get contrarian. While there are plenty of cheap pitchers who are worth looking at, Cincinnati RHP Carson Spiers is the top target at $7,000 on DraftKings.
Spiers comes into tonight sporting a 3.64 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 30:9 K:BB over 42 innings so far this season. Though no one will argue that Spiers hasn’t been more of a solid starter than a spectacular one, he has good stuff, and after working out of the bullpen over his first four appearances, he is now completely stretched out as a full-time starter.
Outside of the six aforementioned pitchers listed above, every other arm on this slate comes with a decent amount of question marks. With Miami currently projected to be by far the highest-owned stack on the board against Spiers, zigging while the field zags makes a lot of sense on this slate.
If you need some more tips on how to use the Post-Contest Simulator to improve your lineup study process, Steve Buzzard has a great guide here on how to maximize your lessons learned from the Sims! Check it out HERE — or watch the video below.
MLB DFS Contrarian Stack
Pirates-White Sox: Pirates
Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 2.2%
Ownership Projection
DraftKings: 1.0%
While ownership at pitcher is pretty diversified amongst six players, stack ownership is expected to be even more spread out. Only the Marlins currently project for double-digit ownership with every other stack coming in somewhere between 1% and 8%. At the bottom of that list are the Pirates, and, for their matchup against Garrett Crochet, they are the top contrarian stack on the board.
Though a matchup with Crochet certainly gives the Pirates a low floor, if they can even get to Crochet a little bit and get him out of the game, they should feast against the atrocious White Sox bullpen.
Crochet comes into tonight’s action as one of the five best pitchers in baseball so far this season. He has been phenomenal from a DFS perspective, and it makes a ton of sense why he enters as the highest-owned pitcher on the slate.
Coming off his worst outing in months, however, it’s fair to wonder if the White Sox start monitoring Crochet’s workload sooner rather than later as he looms as one of the top pieces on the trade market. It goes without saying that Pittsburgh isn’t likely to succeed here. That said, trying to predict future results is a fool’s errand, and if Pittsburgh does have success tonight, it’s a clear path to the top of GPPs.
The Pirates are projected to be the top stack 2.2% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. With just 1.0% of lineups expected to stack them, they stand out in a big way from a leverage perspective, especially with Crochet getting so much love.
Other Contrarian Stacks to Consider
Padres, Nationals, Rockies, White Sox
