The MLB has a massive 12-game main slate tonight with no weather concerns anywhere. Leveraging Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool and Top Pitchers Tool, let’s dive into the player pool to uncover the most effective contrarian picks and stacks for today’s MLB games.
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MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Friday, July 26
MLB DFS Contrarian Pitcher
Padres-Orioles: Grayson Rodriguez
Stokastic’s Top 2 Pitcher Rate
DraftKings: 11.6%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,400
Even with 12 games in play, ownership at pitcher is expected to be pretty condensed. As of this writing, Freddy Peralta, Kyle Harrison, Sonny Gray, George Kirby and Kodai Senga are projected to be a combined 129.4% owned on DraftKings. While Peralta will be the highest owned, expect to see a lot of lineups with some combination of these five pitchers. That leaves a number of pitchers who are falling through the cracks like Grayson Rodriguez, who is the top contrarian pitcher to target in GPPs.
Rodriguez is averaging 19.7 DraftKings points per game while sporting a 3.83 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 120 strikeouts and 33 walks. Striking out 27.1% of hitters, Rodriguez has continued his ascent as one of the best young arms in baseball. Despite his success this season, the field has almost no interest in getting to him in a tough matchup against the Padres. Though all five of the pitchers getting ownership are in better spots on paper, one could argue that Rodriguez is the best actual pitcher toeing the rubber tonight.
Stokastic’s tools currently have Rodriguez being a top-2 pitcher 11.6% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. With only 4.9% of lineups expected to roster him, Rodriguez is a solid differentiator in GPPs.
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MLB DFS Contrarian Stack
Athletics-Angels: Athletics
Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 7.9%
Ownership Projection
DraftKings: 5.3%
Unlike at pitcher where ownership is pretty condensed, stack exposure is expected to be pretty spread out. Only the Yankees are currently projected to be double-digit owned as a stack, taking on Bryan Bello in Fenway. As a result of Coors Field not being on the slate and a bunch of offenses in similarly good spots, we are left with quite a few teams that are coming in with positive leverage, and the Athletics are one of those.
It’s not often the second-ranked team in Stokastic’s Top Stacks Tool is projected to be the highest-leveraged stack on the board, but Oakland fits that bill tonight. Going from Oakland to Anaheim is a massive upgrade for the A’s bats, and matched up with Carson Fulmer and a poor Angels bullpen, there’s a lot to like about them in tournaments. Fulmer has pitched decently for the Angels, but in general he’s a pitcher worth targeting, and his numbers are getting massively boosted by a 4.2-inning, seven-strikeout performance against the Mariners. The A’s have also been one of the best offenses in baseball over the past couple of weeks, with multiple slate-breaking scores.
The A’s are projected to be the top stack 7.9% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings, but only 5.3% of lineups are expected to stack them.
Other Contrarian Stacks to Consider
Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Rangers, Red Sox
