Friday has another huge13-game MLB slate that locks at 7:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings to cap off the work week. Using Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stack and Top Pitchers tools, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best MLB DFS contrarian picks and stacks for today’s action.
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MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Friday, June 28
MLB DFS Contrarian Pitcher
Rangers-Orioles: Albert Suarez
Stokastic’s Top 2 Pitcher Rate
DraftKings: 7.0%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $7,200
Even with 13 games and 26 pitchers in play tonight, ownership at the position is projected to be pretty concentrated. As of this writing, Logan Gilbert, Bailey Ober and Slade Cecconi are projected to be a combined 87.5% owned on DraftKings. Though Gilbert is projected to get the most amount of love, the combination of the three of them will be in a significant number of lineups. With Gilbert, Ober and Cecconi getting rostered at such a high rate, pretty much every other pitcher will be somewhat contrarian tonight.
Among that group of others lies Baltimore right-hander Albert Suarez, and he’s the top contrarian pitcher on DraftKings. After starting the season as one of the best surprises in baseball, Suarez has come back down to earth in a big way over his past few starts. While Suarez still sports a 2.70 ERA through 49.2 innings, his ERA was sitting at 1.61 before getting tagged for eight runs in 8.2 innings over his last two starts. Command issues have contributed to Suarez’s recent struggles, as he’s walked 11 batters over his last three outings. All that being said, Suarez finds himself in one of the best matchups on the slate, and the field is more or less crossing him off completely.
Despite winning the World Series last season, the Rangers have been riding the struggle bus for much of 2024. Over the past 30 days, the Rangers rank last in slugging percentage and second-to-last in both home runs and OPS. While I don’t necessarily expect this offense to be held down all season, the Rangers are currently a really good matchup for opposing starting pitchers in DFS. Suarez is currently projected to be a top-2 pitcher 7.0% of the time this slate plays out. With only 0.6% of lineups expected to roster him, Suarez is worth looking at as a differentiator in tournaments.
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MLB DFS Contrarian Stack
Athletics-Diamondbacks: Athletics
Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 3.2%
Ownership Projection
DraftKings: 3.0%
Unlike at pitcher where three players are getting the majority of love, stack ownership is spread out. The Red Sox are the only team currently projected to be double-digit-owned as a stack, and facing Randy Vasquez in Fenway Park, that checks out. The Red Sox themselves are only projected to be 11.6% owned, with pretty much every other team on the slate coming in between 2% and 8%. The Athletics are at the bottom of that group as the top contrarian stack on the board.
Rostering the A’s in the year 2024 can more often than not feel like a fool’s errand. While there’s no denying that the A’s aren’t a good baseball team, their lineup does the one thing we want for DFS purposes (hit home runs), and facing an incredibly chalky Slade Cecconi, there’s definitely room for them on this particular slate. Truth be told, I’m not surprised at all Cecconi is picking up ownership at a cheap $6,200. That said, he’s projected to be one of the most negatively leveraged players on the entire slate, and he’s far from a proven commodity. Averaging 9.2 DraftKings points per game, Cecconi has left a lot to be desired despite solid underlying numbers. Cecconi is clearly in a good matchup at a very appealing price point; however, it shouldn’t surprise anyone if he struggles like he has in plenty of other “easy” matchups.
As of this writing, the A’s are projected to be the top stack 3.2% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. With only 3.0% of lineups expected to stack them, it’s easy to get over the field on them in large-field GPPs.
Other Contrarian Stacks to Consider
Padres, Orioles, White Sox, Cubs
