In the midst of Anthony Edwards taking over the NBA, the baseball gods bless us with an eight-game MLB slate that locks at 7:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stack and Top Pitchers tools, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best MLB DFS contrarian picks and stacks for today’s action.
One of the keys to building a winning MLB DFS lineup is differentiation, so without contrarian picks like the ones below, you’ll struggle to separate from the pack in tournaments. Subscribe today for access to our industry-leading resources, including our lineup generator (available for NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA), our DFS simulation tools (available for NFL, NBA, MLB, PGA and MMA) and our industry-leading projections for every sport.
MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Tuesday, May 7
MLB DFS Contrarian Pitcher
Padres-Cubs: Shota Imanaga
Stokastic’s Top 2 Pitcher Rate
DraftKings: 14.6%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $10,300
With only eight games in play and good hitting weather all over the board, three pitchers are projected to get the majority of love on DraftKings. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Bailey Ober and Kyle Harrison look like the clear top three arms to target on the slate, which leaves multiple pitchers who seem to be falling through the cracks. Cubs left-hander Shota Imanaga stands out and is the top contrarian pitcher on DraftKings.
Simply put, Imanaga has been phenomenal in his first season in Major League Baseball. He was an ace in Japan for the Yokohama DeNA BayStars, and much was expected of Imanaga when he signed a four-year, $53 million contract with the Cubs in early January. Though he didn’t come with as much hype as his fellow countryman Yoshinobu Yamamoto did, Imanaga has already emerged as one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. He may not be able to keep up his incredible pace, but Imanaga has a pristine 0.78 ERA across 32.2 innings to go along with 35 strikeouts. The lefty has allowed zero earned runs in four of his six starts, and the most he’s given up is the two earned runs he surrendered against the Marlins on April 20.
Truth be told, I’m a bit torn on what to make of Imanaga going forward. His numbers are excellent, but his 2.76 xERA calls for some regression, and it’s likely hitters will begin to have more success against him as the sample size gets larger. As far as this slate goes, however, the field is basically calling Imanaga’s bluff and predicting the negative regression will start to hit tonight. Despite a tough matchup against the Padres in what looks like will be hitter-friendly weather, Imanaga has been the best pitcher on the slate and is getting completely slept on by the field on DraftKings.
As of this writing, Imanaga is far and away the top-leverage pitcher in Stokastic’s Top Pitchers Tool. He is projected to be a top-2 pitcher 14.6% of the time, but only 1.0% of lineups are expected to roster him.
For a limited time only, you can use promo code MLBSIMSWEEK to get access to one week of our industry-leading MLB Sims Max, Sims Data or Data packages for 40% off by clicking here!
MLB DFS Contrarian Stack
Giants-Rockies: Rockies
Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 7.2%
Top Value Projection
DraftKings: 5.5%
With eight games in play and a lack of pitchers worth picking on, ownership is spread out among stacks, with only three teams projected to approach double-digit ownership. Like at pitcher, that leaves a bunch of underowned offenses from which to choose. The Rockies are in that group, and matched up with a popular Kyle Harrison, Colorado is the top contrarian stack on the board.
This Rockies play is more against Harrison and his ownership than it is on Colorado themselves. It seems as if the field has more or less given up on stacking the Rockies, and not only is Colorado projected to be severely underowned, but Harrison himself is projected to be one of the most negatively leveraged pitchers on the slate since he is only projected to be so highly owned because of his $6,400 price tag. While the merit in rostering Harrison is obvious, whenever a pitcher like this is projected for big ownership, it’s always worth looking at the other side.
Even disregarding the leverage Colorado offers, the Rockies are projected to be the top stack 7.2% of the time this slate plays out. With only 3.8% of lineups are projected to stack them, they are the clear top contrarian offense to target in GPPs.
Looking for a way to boost your MLB DFS success? Check out our MLB DFS Sims Tools! Our simulation tools have helped numerous pros and users win big in DraftKings and FanDuel DFS contests across several sports, and they can help you too! Don’t believe us? Read up on the Stokastic Hall of Fame and see for yourself.
