The baseball gods bless us with a 12-game Friday night MLB slate that locks at 7:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stack and Top Pitchers tools, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best MLB DFS contrarian picks and stacks for today’s action.
One of the keys to building a winning MLB DFS lineup is differentiation, so without contrarian picks like the ones below, you’ll struggle to separate from the pack in tournaments. Subscribe today for access to our industry-leading resources, including our lineup generator (available for NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA), our DFS simulation tools (available for NFL, NBA, MLB, PGA and MMA) and our industry-leading projections for every sport.
MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Friday, May 10
MLB DFS Contrarian Pitcher
Twins-Blue Jays: Yusei Kikuchi
Stokastic’s Top 2 Pitcher Rate
DraftKings: 12.8%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,600
With 12 games on the docket and good pitching options across every price point, ownership is pretty spread out with eight pitchers projected for double-digit ownership. Blue Jays left-hander Yusei Kikuchi is not one of those pitchers, and he’s the clear top contrarian arm on DraftKings. Kikuchi comes into tonight’s action sporting a career-best 2.72 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and a 26.5% strikeout rate en route to averaging 18.8 fantasy points per game. Despite his success this season, the field is completely uninterested in building around him on DraftKings.
Simply put, Kikuchi has dazzled in matchups of all difficulties. Going up against a strikeout-heavy Twins team, Kikuchi surprisingly isn’t picking up more ownership, even at his increased price tag on DraftKings. Though there’s opportunity cost in rostering Kikuchi over one of the other stud pitchers toeing the rubber tonight, he’s an elite way to get contrarian without sacrificing any upside.
As of this writing, Kikuchi is the clear top-leverage pitcher in Stokastic’s Top Pitchers Tool. He is projected to be a top-2 pitcher 12.8% of the time, but only 3.8% of lineups are expected to roster him.
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MLB DFS Contrarian Stack
Braves-Mets: Braves
Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 6.1%
Top Value Projection
DraftKings: 0.7%
Outside of the Rangers, who are in Coors against Austin Gomber, no other offense is projected for double-digit ownership on DraftKings. While that leaves a plethora of contrarian stacks from which to choose, Atlanta is the best of the bunch. The Braves are expensive on DraftKings matched up with grizzled veteran left-hander Jose Quintana, and as such they aren’t getting nearly the love they deserve.
Rostering a team like Atlanta in tournaments at low ownership is always fun. Although they haven’t been amazing to start the season, this lineup is filled with proven DFS commodities like Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies. An added feather in Atlanta’s cap tonight is that it has a ton of experience against Quintana, and it sees the ball well against the Mets lefty.
Although we don’t get any real leverage against Quintana himself considering he’s only projected to be 0.5% owned, the Braves are still the clear top contrarian stack on DraftKings. Atlanta is currently projected to be the top stack 6.1% of the time this slate plays out, and only 2.1% lineups are projected to roster them.
Other Contrarian Stacks to Consider
Arizona, St. Louis, Cleveland, Colorado (facing a chalky Jon Gray) and Oakland (facing a chalky Bryan Woo)
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