We’re back with a nine-game MLB slate that locks at 7:07 p.m. ET on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stack and Top Pitchers tools, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best MLB DFS contrarian picks and stacks for today’s action.
One of the keys to building a winning MLB DFS lineup is differentiation, so without contrarian picks like the ones below, you’ll struggle to separate from the pack in tournaments. Subscribe today for access to our industry-leading resources, including our lineup generator (available for NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA), our DFS simulation tools (available for NFL, NBA, MLB, PGA and MMA) and our industry-leading projections for every sport.
MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Monday, April 15
MLB DFS Contrarian Pitcher
Pirates-Mets: Martin Perez
Stokastic’s Top Two Pitcher Rate
DraftKings: 8.2%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $7,600
Even on a nine-game slate with viable pitching options across every price point, ownership is concentrated on three pitchers who are projected to get the majority of love. Pirates left-hander Martin Perez is definitely not one of those three. Coming into tonight’s start averaging 18.3 DraftKings points per game, Perez has been rock solid to start the season, and he’s getting completely forgotten about on DraftKings.
Although rostering Perez in the year 2024 doesn’t seem like a fun endeavor, he stands out in a big way from a leverage standpoint on DraftKings. Perez is off to one of the best starts of his big-league career with a 1.89 ERA through three starts, and the field is still looking to pick on him. The Mets are currently projected to be the third-highest owned stack on the slate, making Perez look even better than he already did. While I’m not completely buying what Perez is selling, he’s pitching really well right now, and the double leverage he provides makes him stand out in a big way in tournaments.
As of this writing, Perez is far and away the highest-graded leverage pitcher in Stokastic’s tools, projected to be a top-2 pitcher 8.2% of the time but for only 1.0% ownership. He is undoubtedly one of the top tournament arms on the slate.
MLB DFS High-Priced Contrarian Stack
Braves-Astros: Braves
Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 11.6%
Top Value Projection
DraftKings: 2.0%
Matched up with Astros rookie Spencer Arrighetti, the Braves have the highest top stack odds of any team on the slate. However, with expensive pitching options a priority and other offenses like the Dodgers and Royals also in really good spots and not nearly as expensive as Atlanta, the Braves are projecting as one of the best “spend up to be contrarian” stacks we’ve seen all season.
Despite numerous signs pointing to upside here, Atlanta is getting misrepresented on DraftKings. Although Arrighetti is a pitcher I like for the future, this is a brutal spot for his second major league start. Arrighetti was awful against the Royals in his first start, and the Braves upside is undeniable here. While it will take some sacrifices in other parts of your lineups to fully stack them, Atlanta is the clear top offense to target in tournaments.
While there is definitely opportunity cost in prioritizing the Braves over some less expensive stacks like the Dodgers and Royals, Atlanta is falling through the cracks in a big way on DraftKings. Currently projected to be the top stack 11.6% of the time this slate plays out, the Braves are only projected to be stacked in 5.9% of lineups. Wheels up in GPPs!
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MLB DFS Low-Priced Contrarian Stack
Cardinals-Athletics: Cardinals
Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 6.4%
Stokastic’s Top Value Projection
DraftKings: 6.7%
Although Atlanta stands out as the top tournament stack on the board, St. Louis isn’t far behind, matched up with Ross Stripling in Oakland. The Cardinals’ upside might not be what that of the Braves’ is, but they are significantly cheaper as a whole and much easier to stack with expensive pitching. Coming off a tough matchup yesterday in Arizona against Diamondbacks ace Zac Gallen, there’s a lot to like about St. Louis in a bounce-back spot tonight.
The Cardinals are starting to get healthier with Lars Nootbar back in the mix, and they couldn’t ask to be in a better spot than matched up with Stripling. Stripling benefits from a big ballpark in Oakland, but his stuff leaves a lot to be desired.
While the Cardinals’ floor might be lower than some other teams in their price range due to playing in Oakland, they also have real upside in this spot, and the field isn’t interested in getting to them on DraftKings. Currently projected to be the top stack 6.4% of the time this slate plays out, St. Louis is projected to be in just 3.8% of lineups.
