In the midst of a four-game afternoon slate, we have a 10-game MLB main slate that locks early at 6:40 p.m. ET on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stack and Top Pitchers tools, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best MLB DFS contrarian picks and stacks for today’s action.
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MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Wednesday, May 22 (Main Slate)
MLB DFS Contrarian Pitcher
Padres-Reds: Michael King
Stokastic’s Top 2 Pitcher Rate
DraftKings: 11.1%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,800
Similar to many of the slates we’ve seen recently, ownership is projected to be very spread out at pitcher tonight. As of this writing, there are six arms projected for double-digit ownership on DraftKings. Coming off a rough start against the Rockies, Padres right-hander Michael King is not one of those pitchers.
King came to San Diego as one of the main pieces in the Juan Soto deal, and he has been rock solid for a Padres team that desperately needed more depth in its starting rotation. Though his season has been a bit of a roller coaster and his underlying numbers are just OK, King’s upside is right there with much any pitcher in the league when he has his stuff. Look no further than May 10 when King struck out 11 Dodgers en route to dropping 34.8 fantasy points in a 2-1 win.
Though King was uber-chalk at home against the Rockies, the field has no interest in running it back with him tonight, with safer options like Tyler Glasnow and Ryan Pepiot projected to be much higher owned. While Glasnow and Pepiot look good in their own right, King isn’t getting nearly the love he should be getting considering his sky-high ceiling.
As of this writing, King is the top leverage pitcher in Stokastic’s Top Pitchers Tool. He is projected to be a top-2 pitcher 11.1% of the time this slate plays out, but only 2.8% of lineups are projected to roster him.
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MLB DFS Contrarian Stack
White Sox-Blue Jays: White Sox
Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 9.2%
Ownership Projection
DraftKings: 5.0%
Similar to what we’re seeing with ownership projections at pitcher, stack exposures are expected to be extremely spread out tonight. As of this writing, no offense is projected to be more than 10% owned on DraftKings. While that leaves quite a few contrarian stacks to choose from, they are all chasing the White Sox for top contrarian stack on the board.
Much like stacking the Rockies, playing the White Sox in the year 2024 can often feel like pulling teeth. There is a time for pulling teeth and stacking the White Sox, however, and matched up with struggling Blue Jays right-hander Chris Bassitt, tonight is that night. Coming into tonight’s action with a 5.00 xERA, .278 xBA, and .352 xWOBA, Bassitt is much more name than substance right now, and there is a case to be made that he’s one of the worst pitchers on the slate. While we can’t just ignore his success at the major league level for years prior to this one, his numbers aren’t good, and the field is still expected to jam him into lineups at a 27.4% clip.
As of this writing, the White Sox are one of the better-leveraged stacks we’ve seen all year. Projected to be the top stack 9.2% of the time this slate plays out, only 5.0% of the field is expected to prioritize them on DraftKings. These numbers don’t even account for the leverage against a popular Bassitt, only making Chicago look that much better.
Other Contrarian Stacks to Consider
Rangers, Rockies (facing a chalky Mitch Spence), Reds, Giants
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