We’re back with a seven-game MLB slate that locks at 6:40 p.m. ET on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stack and Top Pitchers tools, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best MLB DFS contrarian picks and stacks for today’s action.
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MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Wednesday, May 8
MLB DFS Contrarian Pitcher
Diamondbacks-Reds: Graham Ashcraft
Stokastic’s Top 2 Pitcher Rate
DraftKings: 10.7%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,300
Even with only six games in play, and good hitting weather pretty much everywhere, ownership at pitcher is pretty spread out, with five arms projected to be at least 25% owned. Reds right-hander Graham Ashcraft is not one of those pitchers, and he is averaging 15.9 DraftKings points and posting a 3.64 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and a career-best 20.3% strikeout rate.
Though his underlying numbers call for slight negative regression, Ashcraft is far and away the most positively leveraged pitcher on the slate. Coming off back-to-back quality starts in which he went a combined 12.1 innings and gave up only one earned run, Ashcraft is in great form. While a matchup with the Diamondbacks is no easy task, Ashcraft has collected wins against similarly talented teams in the Padres and Rangers over this two-game stretch.
Ashcraft is the clear top-leverage pitcher in Stokastic’s Top Pitchers Tool. He is projected to be a top-2 pitcher 10.7% of the time, but only 1.7% of lineups are expected to roster him.
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MLB DFS Contrarian Stack
Giants-Rockies: Rockies
Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 4.7%
Top Value Projection
DraftKings: 5.1%
Sigh. If the definition of insanity is doing the same thing and expecting different results, call me insane because I’m going right back to the Rockies as the top contrarian stack on DraftKings — though I can put some of the blame on Stokastic’s tools, as the Rockies are the top leverage stack overall. Coming off a shutout at the hands of Kyle Harrison, Colorado’s offense is hard to trust right now. That said, the Rockies are facing another really chalky pitcher in Jordan Hicks, and the leverage they provide is too good to pass up.
Similar to last night, this Rockies play is more against Hicks and his ownership than it is on Colorado. The field is still not stacking the Rockies even in Coors, and Hicks is projected to be one of the most negatively leveraged pitchers on the slate. Even disregarding the leverage against Hicks, the Rockies are projected to be the top stack 4.7% of the time this slate plays out, but only 2.2% of lineups is projected to stack them.
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