We’re back with a massive 13-game MLB slate that locks early at 7:05p.m. ET on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stack and Top Pitchers tools, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best MLB DFS contrarian picks and stacks for today’s action.
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MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Friday, May 17
MLB DFS Contrarian Pitcher
Brewers-Astros: Freddy Peralta
Stokastic’s Top 2 Pitcher Rate
DraftKings: 11.3%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $10,400
It’s not often that the highest-priced pitcher on a slate is also the most leveraged, but Brewers ace Freddy Peralta checks both those boxes tonight in a matchup with the Astros. While there are undoubtedly a number of good pitching options across 13 games, Peralta is right there with Tarik Skubal as the best overall arm on the slate. He’s clearly in a tough matchup, but Peralta has as high of upside as any pitcher in baseball, and the field is making a mistake by completely crossing him off.
Houston’s lineup is full of good hitters, and the majority of the lineup does not strike out. That said, Peralta is one of the best MLB DFS pitchers and has slate-breaking upside every time he toes the rubber, averaging 20.2 DraftKings points per game and a robust 31.9% strikeout rate. Although Peralta’s floor might be lower in a spot like this, his ceiling is still massive, and there’s always merit in getting to a pitcher as good as Peralta when that pitcher isn’t getting any love.
As of this writing, Peralta is the clear top leverage pitcher in Stokastic’s Top Pitchers Tool. He is projected to be a top-2 pitcher 11.3% of the time, but only 2.8% of lineups are projected to roster him.
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MLB DFS Contrarian Stack
Tigers-Diamondbacks: Tigers
Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 5.8%
Ownership Projection
DraftKings: 4.0%
Similar to most of the slates we’ve had this week, projected ownership on stacks is extremely spread out on DraftKings. No team is projected to be higher than 8.8% owned. That leaves us with a bunch of contrarian stacks, and the Tigers are the best of the bunch in a matchup with Ryne Nelson and the Diamondbacks. Though Nelson himself isn’t garnering much ownership, he’s one of the worst pitchers on the slate, and the Tigers are just getting lost in the shuffle on a night with a bunch of similar-looking options.
There’s no doubt in my mind that Detroit would’ve been popular in this spot on many of the smaller slates we’ve recently had. Tonight, however, the Tigers are a casualty of a massive slate with good options across the board. Picking on Nelson seems like a smart move, as the Arizona right-hander currently sports a 5.33 ERA and 1.70 WHIP. Nelson’s 4.92 xERA doesn’t inspire much confidence, and his 47.3% hard-hit percentage suggests that those numbers might even go down. Though they look expensive on paper with a $5,500 Riley Greene and a $5,100 Mark Canha, the Tigers have plenty of cheap bats scattered across their lineup to make the stack doable.
The Tigers currently grade out as the clear top leverage stack on DraftKings. Projected to be the top stack 5.8% of the time this slate plays out, only 4% of the field is expected to stack them.
Other Contrarian Stacks to Consider
Orioles, White Sox (facing a chalky Nestor Cortes), Athletics (facing a chalky Cole Ragans), Twins
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