Coming off a small three-game MLB slate on Thursday, baseball is back with a massive 10-game slate that locks at 7:10 p.m. ET tonight on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stack and Top Pitchers tools, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best MLB DFS contrarian picks and stacks for today’s action.
One of the keys to building a winning MLB DFS lineup is differentiation, so without contrarian picks like the ones below, you’ll struggle to separate from the pack in tournaments. Subscribe today for access to our industry-leading resources, including our lineup generator (available for NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA), our DFS simulation tools (available for NFL, NBA, MLB, PGA and MMA) and our industry-leading projections for every sport.
MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Friday, April 19
MLB DFS Contrarian Pitcher
Diamondbacks-Giants: Blake Snell
Stokastic’s Top Two Pitcher Rate
DraftKings: 19.3%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,300
Two Scott Boras clients — now only one with Montgomery axing him — who waited all winter and into spring to sign with their respective teams are set to face off against one another. Jordan Montgomery makes his Diamondbacks debut in a matchup with new Giant Blake Snell. And while Montgomery has strong leverage himself, Snell is the top contrarian pitcher on DraftKings.
Snell hasn’t looked anything like the reigning 2023 National League Cy Young Award winner through three starts. Since he didn’t sign with the Giants until late March, however, it’s reasonable to assume that Snell will be back to his old self sooner rather than later. There’s no guarantee that he will snap back into form tonight in a tough spot against the Diamondbacks, but the field is completely writing off Snell, and he’s an easy way to get different without sacrificing any upside.
Despite his sluggish start, Snell’s strikeouts and history of success make him a must-consider fantasy option every time he takes the mound. While there are reasons to be concerned with his current form, this seems like the perfect spot to buy low on a severely under-owned Snell.
As of this writing, Snell is far and away the highest-graded leverage pitcher in Stokastic’s tools, with a whopping 19.3% top-2 pitcher percentage and only 9.7% projected ownership. He is undoubtedly one of the top tournament options on the slate.
MLB DFS Contrarian Stack
Rays-Yankees: Rays
Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 4.0%
Top Value Projection
DraftKings: 3.2%
With plenty of weak pitching options and a Coors Field game tonight, there are a ton of bats in great spots. Weather in Colorado look extremely pitcher friendly, however, so ownership on stacks is pretty spread out outside of the Orioles, with Baltimore projected to be the highest-owned offense on the board. Though the Orioles undoubtedly look great against a struggling Alec Marsh, the Rays are an intriguing pivot, and Randy Arozarena and Co. are the top contrarian stack on DraftKings.
Much like their former ace Snell, the Rays offense has disappointed to start the 2024 campaign. Proven fantasy commodities like Arozarena and Yandy Diaz fill their lineup, so it’s likely that Rays bats will regress back to their norm as the season progresses. Missing Brandon Lowe hurts, especially against right-handed pitching, but this lineup can still do a ton of damage both with the long ball and on the base paths.
Their floor might be lower than other stacks in their price range due to a potentially tough matchup with Clarke Schmidt and the Yankees bullpen, but the Rays aren’t getting nearly the love they should be getting on DraftKings. As of this writing, Tampa Bay is projected to be the top stack 4.0% of the time this slate plays out, and only 1.8% of the field is projected to stack them.
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Other MLB DFS Notes for April 19
There seem to be two major decision points:
- To play or to fade Blake Snell.
- What to do with the Coors Field game.
I wrote my thoughts on Snell as a contrarian pitcher above. While I love the idea of getting to him in tournaments, he’s far from a lock given his recent form and the tough matchup against Arizona. A lot of bats have been priced up a bit tonight, so it’s not easy to play Snell plus another expensive pitcher plus an expensive stack. I’m of the belief that Snell will be back to normal relatively soon, but I may not want to bet on that tonight in this spot.
The Mariners-Rockies game is really intriguing from all angles. Two weaker pitchers in Coors usually mean the bats will get a ton of love, but tonight that doesn’t seem to be the case. Combine good pitching weather with expensive price tags, and both teams are projected to be severely under-owned. While this might not hold, make sure to watch Live Before Lock to stay up on all the latest updates!
