Monday’s MLB slate is a nine-gamer that locks at 7:07 p.m. ET on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stack and Top Pitchers tools, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best MLB DFS contrarian picks and stacks for today’s action.
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MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Monday, April 29
MLB DFS Contrarian Pitcher
Twins-White Sox: Garrett Crochet
Stokastic’s Top 2 Pitcher Rate
DraftKings: 13.5%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,600
There are nine games on the slate, and the weak options at pitcher have condensed ownership to just a few names. Specifically, Max Fried and Joe Ryan are projected to be the two highest-owned pitchers tonight. That means plenty of other pitchers have positive leverage, and White Sox left-hander Garrett Crochet is near the top of the list despite averaging only 14.4 DraftKings points per game. His underlying numbers suggest positive regression is coming, and he’s getting completely forgotten about on DraftKings.
On the surface, Crochet has been pretty unimpressive outside of his first two starts of the season. Overall, Crochet has a 6.37 ERA, 40 strikeouts, four walks and has allowed a .329 WOBA to opposing hitters. When taking a deeper look at these numbers, however, it’s clear that Crochet has been a major victim of bad luck, as his 2.59 xERA and .260 xWOBA make him look much better for DFS purposes.
Crochet has the most leverage right now in Stokastic’s tools, with a 13.5% top-2 pitcher projection but just 5.2% ownership.
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MLB DFS High-Priced Contrarian Stack
Rays-Brewers: Rays
Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 6.4%
Top Value Projection
DraftKings: 2.4%
Unlike at pitcher where ownership is concentrated, only two stacks are expected to be over 10% owned on DraftKings. While the Dodgers and to a lesser extent the Twins stand out as top offenses on the board, pretty much every other offense is coming in somewhere between 4% and 8% owned. There are plenty of contrarian stacks to choose from, but Tampa Bay is the best of the bunch taking on Bryse Wilson in Milwaukee.
Despite their volatility, the Rays can be a top offense on any given night. Coming off an embarrassing series in which Tampa got swept by the lowly White Sox, expect the best Kevin Cash and co. have to offer as they look to redeem themselves in Milwaukee. Not only is the matchup with Wilson enticing, but Tampa also gets the benefit of facing a taxed Brewers bullpen after the Yankees totaled 30 runs over the past two days.
The Dodgers and Phillies have higher upside, but Tampa Bay is falling through the cracks, projecting to be stacked in just 3.1% of lineups and coming in as the top stack 6.4% of the time this slate plays out.
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MLB DFS Low-Priced Contrarian Stack
Royals-Blue Jays: Blue Jays
Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 7.3%
Stokastic’s Top Value Projection
DraftKings: 7.8%
The Blue Jays are projecting to be the top value stack 7.8% of the time this slate plays out, so it’s a bit odd that they aren’t getting love in what looks like an obvious upside spot against Jonathan Bowlan. While Toronto has struggled offensively to start the season, its lineup is filled with proven DFS commodities.
Although Bowlen has been decent through four starts at Triple-A this season, he’s a 27-year-old non-prospect who has struggled in every season prior to this one.
While the Blue Jays bats have left a lot to be desired through 29 games, it’s likely they will turn it around sooner rather than later, and the field is already out on them despite an elite matchup against Bowlen. Toronto is currently projected to be the top stack 7.3% of the time but has just 5.8% ownership.
