We’re back with another eight-game MLB slate that locks at 7:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stack and Top Pitchers tools, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best MLB DFS contrarian picks and stacks for today’s action.
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MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Tuesday, May 21
MLB DFS Contrarian Pitcher
Mariners-Yankees: Bryan Woo
Stokastic’s Top 2 Pitcher Rate
DraftKings: 8.8%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,500
Unlike last night’s eight-game slate where ownership at pitcher was extremely spread out, there are four pitchers projected to get the majority of love tonight. Mariners right-hander Bryan Woo is not one of those arms, and he’s the top contrarian pitcher on DraftKings. He’s in a tough matchup in New York against the Yankees, but Woo has been fantastic through his first two starts, and he’s not getting nearly the love he should be getting on DraftKings.
Coming off a 2023 campaign in which he posted a 3.45 xERA, Woo has been even better this year, with a 2.11 xERA after matchups with the Athletics and Royals. He threw only 62 pitches in his first start against Oakland, but Woo came back to throw 79 pitches last time out against Kansas City. While it’s unlikely Woo will get to 100 pitches tonight, it wouldn’t be all that surprising to see him rack up 90 if he’s pitching well.
Truth be told, part of the reason Woo looks so good as a contrarian option has little to do with Woo himself. When pitchers like Cal Quantrill and Aaron Brooks are projected for massive ownership because of cheap price points, more talented pitchers like Woo start to stand out. Though there’s no denying that both Quantrill and Brooks are in better matchups on paper, Woo has far better stuff than those guys, and his upside is significantly higher despite a much tougher matchup.
As of this writing, Woo is the top leverage pitcher in Stokastic’s Top Pitchers Tool. He is projected to be a top-2 pitcher 8.8% of the time this slate plays out, but only 1.5% of lineups are projected to roster him.
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MLB DFS Contrarian Stack
Rockies-Athletics: Rockies
Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 3.6%
Ownership Projection
DraftKings: 3.6%
Speaking of Brooks, it’s not often a pitcher goes from being stacked against by the majority of the field to chalk on the very next slate he’s on. That’s the case for Brooks tonight, however, as his one good start in Houston has the field flocking to him in a big way in a much easier spot at home against the Rockies. As Lee Corso says, however, “not so fast, my friend.” Though Brooks was decent in Houston last time out, he hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2022 and his numbers in the minor leagues leave a lot to be desired.
It wasn’t all that long ago that the field was running to play Astros hitters against Brooks. As a matter of fact, it was less than a week ago, and while he was decent in that start, he’s only getting ownership tonight because of his $6,400 price tag and a matchup with the Rockies. Though Colorado isn’t particularly good, it’s fair to assume it is better than most teams in the minor leagues, the same minor leagues where Brooks was sporting a 4.57 ERA and 1.44 WHIP across 43.1 innings before getting called up to the show. I’d stack my high school JV team against Brooks right now, and the fact that he is getting ownership is icing on the cake.
Per Stokastic’s tools, the Rockies’ 3.6% ownership projection is right in line with their 3.6% top stack projection. These numbers don’t take into account the ownership that Brooks is getting, however, making the Rockies stand out from a leverage perspective.
Other Contrarian Stacks to Consider
Orioles (weather), Mariners (facing a chalky Clarke Schmidt), Diamondbacks
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