Even with the NCAA Basketball Championship Game taking center stage, we have a nine-game MLB slate that locks at 7:10 p.m. ET tonight on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stack and Top Pitchers tools, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best MLB DFS contrarian picks and stacks for today’s action.
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MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Monday, April 8
MLB DFS Contrarian Pitcher
Mariners-Blue Jays: Luis Castillo
Stokastic’s Top Two Pitcher Rate
DraftKings: 14.1%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,400
With nine games on tonight’s docket, there are quality arms scattered throughout every price point. Ownership is pretty spread out outside of Blake Snell and Jose Berrios, but there are still a few pitchers falling through the cracks on DraftKings. Heading that list is Luis Castillo.
Castillo is averaging a modest 10.3 DraftKings points in two starts against the Red Sox and Guardians. Much of his lack of success can be attributed to a really high BABIP, however, suggesting that positive regression could be headed his way.
For his career, Castillo has allowed a .285 average on balls put in play. Compare that to the .424 average he’s allowing this year, and it’s logical to think that Castillo has started the 2024 campaign with some bad luck. While there’s no guarantee any of this changes tonight in a tough spot against the Blue Jays, the field is completely writing off Castillo, and he’s an easy way to get different without sacrificing any upside.
Despite his sluggish start, Castillo has still been his normal, dominant self from a strikeout perspective, and he has yet to allow a hit to a right-handed hitter this season. Coming into tonight, righties are a cool 0-for-16 off Castillo, and considering all of Toronto’s best hitters are right-handed, this seems like the perfect spot to buy low on an under-owned Castillo.
As of this writing, Castillo is far and away the highest-graded leverage pitcher in Stokastic’s tools, with a 14.1% top-2 pitcher percentage and only 1.5% projected ownership. While these numbers might slightly change as lineups come out, Castillo is undoubtedly one of the top tournament options on the slate.
MLB DFS Contrarian Stack
Dodgers-Twins: Dodgers
Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 6.4%
Top Value Projection
DraftKings: 1.6%
With plenty of weak pitching options and a Coors Field game tonight, there are a ton of bats in great spots. Ownership on stacks is pretty spread out outside of the Diamondbacks, with Arizona projected to be far and away the highest-owned offense on the board. While the Diamondbacks undoubtedly look great against a struggling Kyle Freeland, the Dodgers are an intriguing pivot, and Mookie Betts and Co. are the top contrarian stack on DraftKings.
Given the potency of their lineup, the Dodgers are likely to be a top stack on pretty much every slate they are on. Tonight is no exception, as the Dodgers grade out extremely well in a matchup with Bailey Ober. Ober is coming off a horrific season debut, as he allowed nine hits and eight runs in only 1.1 innings last week against the Royals. Although I’m actually still high on Ober for the rest of the season, a matchup with Betts, Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman is not the spot I want to buy low on him. The Dodgers are in play against anyone, and their expensive price tags are keeping the masses away.
While their floor might be lower than other stacks in their price range due to a potentially tough matchup with Ober, the Dodgers aren’t getting nearly the love they should be getting on DraftKings. As of this writing, Los Angeles is projected to be the top stack 6.4% of the time this slate plays out, and only 3.7% of the field is projected to stack them.
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Other MLB DFS Notes for April 8
As of this writing, there seems to be two major decision points:
- To play or to fade Blake Snell.
- What to do with the Diamondbacks in tournaments.
Snell is making his Giants debut tonight against the Nationals. While it’s unlikely he will throw more than 80 pitches tonight, he has the highest strikeout upside of any pitcher on the slate, and a matchup with Washington is about as soft as he could ask for as he begins his Giants career.
With the Diamondbacks, there is no easy answer for someone who doesn’t play a ton of lineups. From an ownership perspective, Arizona will easily be the highest-owned stack on tonight’s slate, at 17.1%. Stokastic’s tools have the Diamondbacks as the top stack 19.9% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. With plenty of other high-upside offenses in play tonight, Arizona is not a must-play in single-entry tournaments given its projected ownership. That said, it is clearly the top stack on the board, and if you are fading it, know that your night could be over very early.
