Today we have a massive 13-game MLB slate that locks at 7:05 p.m. ET tonight on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stack and Top Pitchers tools, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best MLB DFS contrarian picks and stacks for today’s action.
One of the keys to building a winning MLB DFS lineup is differentiation, so without contrarian picks like the ones below, you’ll struggle to separate from the pack in tournaments. Subscribe today for access to our industry-leading resources, including our lineup generator (available for NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA), our DFS simulation tools (available for NFL, NBA, MLB, PGA and MMA) and our industry-leading projections for every sport.
MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Friday, April 26
MLB DFS Contrarian Pitcher
Phillies-Padres: Aaron Nola
Stokastic’s Top Two Pitcher Rate
DraftKings: 8.6%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $10,3000
Even on a slate with 13 games and 26 pitchers to choose from, ownership is pretty concentrated with five arms getting the majority of love. Phillies ace Aaron Nola is not one of those five. The most expensive pitcher on the slate, Nola is in good form after a dominant outing on Sunday against the White Sox. He is averaging only 18.4 DraftKings points per game, but outside of Atlanta getting to him in his season debut, he’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball. Despite his clear upside every time he toes the rubber, the field is completely uninterested in building around an expensive Nola in a tough spot against the Padres.
Nola is a better pitcher at home, but the lack of ownership going his way compared to some of his contemporaries like Corbin Burnes and Zac Gallen has him high on my tournament shortlist. While the Padres don’t offer the best matchup in the world, it’s always nice to catch a team right after they play in Coors, and without Manny Machado, San Diego’s lineup leaves a lot to be desired.
As of this writing, Nola is far and away the highest-graded leverage pitcher in Stokastic’s tools, with an 8.6% top-2 pitcher percentage and only 0.5% projected ownership. He is undoubtedly one of the top tournament options on the slate.
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MLB DFS Contrarian Stack
Yankees-Brewers: Yankees
Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 6.9%
Top Value Projection
DraftKings: 1.8%
Unlike at pitcher where ownership is decently condensed, no offense is projected to be more than 8.5% owned as a stack on DraftKings. With 26 offenses to choose from, getting contrarian with stacks shouldn’t be that difficult. That said, the Yankees look like the best of the bunch.
Even with the addition of all-world outfielder Juan Soto, the Yankees offense has only been decent to start the 2024 campaign. Proven fantasy commodities like Soto and Aaron Judge fill their lineup, so it’s likely that Yankees bats will regress back to their norm as the season progresses. Missing leadoff hitter D.J. LeMahieu hurts, but this lineup can still do a ton of damage both with the long ball and on the basepaths. While Brewers starter Colin Rea has been decent to start the season, he’s not missing bats, and the Yankees’ upside is undeniable in this spot.
Their floor might be lower than other stacks in their price range due to their own inconsistencies, but the Yankees aren’t getting nearly the love they should be getting on DraftKings. As of this writing, New York is projected to be the top stack 6.9% of the time this slate plays out, and only 3.7% of the field is projected to stack them.
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Other MLB DFS Notes for April 26
Truth be told, this is my favorite type of slate. While the pitching options seem a bit more obvious, I could make a case for wanting to be over the field on at least 15 stacks in tournaments. While there are definitely offenses that are going over-owned per Stokastic’s tools, there is no team that we need to be worried about as far as ownership goes. This is a true “play who you want” type of slate, so make sure to catch MLB Live Before Lock only on Playback tonight!
