Coming off a long holiday weekend, we’re back with a 10-game MLB main slate that locks at 7:20 p.m. ET on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stack and Top Pitchers tools, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best MLB DFS contrarian picks and stacks for today’s action.
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MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Tuesday, May 28
MLB DFS Contrarian Pitcher
Royals-Twins: Cole Ragans
Stokastic’s Top 2 Pitcher Rate
DraftKings: 15.8%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $10,200
With 10 games on tonight’s docket and good pitching options across every price point, ownership is pretty scattered among arms. As of this writing, nine pitchers are projected for double-digit ownership on DraftKings. Royals left-hander Cole Ragans is not one of those.
Ragans has been nothing short of phenomenal, averaging 20.1 fantasy points per game while sporting a 3.34 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 76 strikeouts and 21 walks through 62 innings this season. Despite his nightly dominance, the field isn’t getting to him at nearly the rate it should be.
Even with expensive options like Zack Wheeler and Freddy Peralta in play tonight, it’s pretty surprising that Ragans is projected to be just the 10th-highest-owned pitcher on the slate. While he’s expensive at $10,200, Ragans is in excellent form after putting up a combined 70.5 DraftKings points in wins over the Tigers and Athletics. He is in a tougher spot tonight against Minnesota, but I’m not afraid of this Twins lineup, and Ragans’ strikeout upside alone makes him a candidate to be the highest-scoring pitcher on every slate he’s on.
As of this writing, Ragans is projected to be a rop-2 pitcher 15.8% of the time this slate plays out, but only 8.6% of lineups are expected to roster him.
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MLB DFS Contrarian Stack
Diamondbacks-Rangers: Diamondbacks
Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 7.1%
Ownership Projection
DraftKings: 4.2%
The Phillies looked good in a spot against former Philadelphia farmhand Spencer Howard, but with San Francisco instead going with Erik Miller, I found it more appropriate to ride with Arizona. As far as leverage goes in Stokastic’s tools, both Philadelphia and Arizona are by far the top 2 stacks on the board. Though I much prefer to stack the Diamondbacks against left-handed pitching, they are in a really good matchup tonight against Rangers right-hander Dane Dunning.
Dunning’s 4.43 ERA and .315 WOBA aren’t horrendous. His 5.39 xERA and .364 xWOBA are, however, and the Diamondbacks are more or less getting forgotten about on DraftKings. While there’s opportunity cost in stacking the Diamondbacks over one of the other many good offenses to choose from, Arizona’s 8.4% chance of being the top value stack can come in handy if expensive pitchers become a priority.
The Diamondbacks are currently the top contrarian stack on the board. Even in a good matchup with Dunning, only 4.2% of the field is expected to stack them despite them having a 7.1% chance of being the top stack.
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Other Contrarian Stacks to Consider
Phillies, Rangers, Braves, Rockies
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