MLB DFS is all about finding edges, so why not apply that same mentality to sports betting? If you’re a DFS player, you already dig through stats, matchups and news to outsmart the competition. Those skills give you a leg up in the betting world too. With baseball’s long season and games every day, there are countless chances to put your knowledge to work and pad your bankroll with +EV bets. Early in the season especially can be fertile ground for sharp bettors before the market fully adjusts to new teams and player performances.
In this article, we’ll break down five actionable tips to help you make positive expected value bets that complement your DFS play. These aren’t basic betting clichés – they’re sharper strategies that real bettors use, tailored specifically for DFS fans. And throughout, we’ll highlight how you can leverage OddsShopper’s Portfolio EV tool to easily find a bunch of these opportunities.
MLB Betting & DFS: 5 Portfolio EV Bankroll Management Tips
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1. Line Shop Like a Pro
Winning in MLB betting isn’t just about picking the right side – it’s also about getting the best odds for that side. Line shopping is a fundamental +EV habit because even small differences in price have a big impact on your bottom line. For instance, one book might have a bet at -110 odds while another offers -105. That 5-cent difference may seem minor, but over 1,000 bets at $100 each it adds up quickly.
The smart move is to always hunt for the best line – and Portfolio EV makes this easy. It scans multiple sportsbooks in real time to flag where you can get the top odds and a positive expected value on a given bet. In other words, it does the shopping for you, ensuring you’re not leaving money on the table. Just like you wouldn’t settle for a suboptimal DFS lineup, you shouldn’t settle for a subpar betting line. Line shop like a pro and you’ll boost your long-term ROI without any extra sweat.
2. Bankroll Management Isn’t Optional
All the betting savvy in the world won’t help if you go bust from poor bankroll management. Think of your betting bankroll like your DFS bankroll – you have to protect it to stay in the game. This means setting strict limits on your bet sizes and sticking to them. Even if you have a big edge on a play, avoid the temptation to dramatically increase your bet size. Seasoned bettors typically risk only a small fraction (around 1% to 2%) of their bankroll on each bet. That might feel slow and conservative, but it’s how you survive the inevitable losing streaks. Ultimately, staying in the game by avoiding bankroll blowups is key – you can’t capitalize on +EV opportunities if you’ve drained your account.
The Portfolio EV approach naturally reinforces good bankroll discipline. By surfacing dozens of modest +EV bets instead of a few huge ones, it encourages you to spread your risk around. This diversification means no single bad beat will sink you, and your bankroll can grow steadily over time. Bankroll management isn’t optional – it’s the bedrock that lets your +EV betting strategy flourish.
3. Find Hidden Underdog Value
DFS players know that sometimes the less obvious pick can reap the biggest reward. The same holds true in betting – underdogs can be goldmines of value if you pick your spots wisely. Casual bettors love favorites, which means underdogs often carry more attractive odds than they should. Your job is to identify when the betting line is underestimating an underdog’s true chance to win. For example, if a book gives an underdog a 40% implied chance (roughly +150 odds) but your analysis says it’s closer to 50%, you’ve found a clear +EV opportunity. That may seem minor, but over many bets you’re getting a much higher payout than the risk actually deserves – a recipe for long-term profit.
Early in the season is a prime time to sniff out underdog value, as oddsmakers are still adjusting to new rosters and player form. Maybe last year’s cellar-dweller is much improved, or a powerhouse hasn’t hit its stride yet – those situations can produce live dogs at juicy prices. The key is doing your homework (just like in DFS) and trusting data over public bias. Portfolio EV by cutting through that bias and flagging plus-money bets with real value. It doesn’t care about team reputations; if an underdog has a genuine edge, the tool will spotlight it.
4. Correlate Your DFS and Betting Strategy
Why not let your DFS insights do double duty? If you’ve identified a strong angle in MLB DFS – say a game you expect to be high-scoring or a pitcher you plan to fade – you can often translate that into a smart bet and potentially cash in twice on your prediction. For example, if you’re stacking a certain team’s hitters in DFS because you think they’ll light up an opposing pitcher, consider betting that team’s run total over or even their moneyline. Or if you’re fading a popular ace in DFS (expecting him to underperform), you might take the under on his strikeout prop or bet on the opposing team for an upset.
That said, correlation doesn’t mean blindly betting every DFS pick – you still need a +EV angle. This is where Portfolio EV comes in handy. After setting your DFS lineups or identifying your favorite plays, check the tool for any corresponding wagers with positive expected value. Often, your contrarian DFS lean will align with a juicy betting line the public overlooks. The tool can confirm if that over 8.5 runs or under 6.5 strikeouts is truly worth a wager. By syncing up your DFS and betting strategies, you maximize your edge – just be sure to only fire when the odds check out in your favor.
5. Don’t Chase Steam – Beat It
In betting lingo, a “steam” move is when odds suddenly shift because a ton of money (often sharp action) comes in on one side. For instance, you might see a game total jump from 7.5 to 8.5 runs within minutes after heavy bets hit the over. When you notice this kind of drastic movement, the worst thing you can do is chase it – i.e. bet after the line has already moved. Hopping on the bandwagon late means accepting a much worse price, which usually wipes out any edge that existed.
Instead, aim to beat the steam by anticipating or reacting instantly to the news that drives line moves. MLB bettors can gain an edge here by staying on top of late-breaking info like injury reports and weather changes. If a star slugger is scratched, try to place your bet before the sportsbooks adjust. Acting fast lets you lock in the favorable odds before they vanish. Portfolio EV helps by flagging big edges in real time. If you see a bet suddenly show a high EV on the platform, that’s a sign one book’s line is lagging – your cue to grab that value before it moves. By pouncing early like this, you’ll consistently beat the closing line (getting better odds than the final market price) – a hallmark of long-term betting success.
