Our PGA DFS series continues with our John Deere Classic PGA DFS Core Plays, which includes a look at Davis Thompson, among others.
Last week, The Rocket Mortgage Classic produced an entertaining finish that saw Cam Davis hoist the trophy on Sunday for the second time in four years. This week we have yet another birdie fest on tap with the John Deere Classic, an event that has been a mainstay on the tour for decades.
2024 John Deere Classic PGA DFS Core Plays
2024 John Deere Classic PGA DFS Course & Tournament Preview
TPC Deere Run plays host and is a par 71 measuring in at 7,300 yards. It very much fits into the “run of the mill” category in terms of tour courses with not many unique elements to it. Because of that, not much stands in the way of the best players in the world tearing it up.
The main defense is the thick rough that surrounds the fairways, but outside of that, this course produces some of the lowest scores we’ll see on tour all season. Winning scores typically eclipse the 20-under mark, so birdies will reign supreme yet again.
Much like last week, I’ll be targeting players that have a high birdie or better percentage for the reasons laid out above. Most approach shots will be coming from the 100-150 yard range, so good wedge play will be key to competing.
I’ve identified the plays below using the Stokastic PGA Sims tool. Our hole-by-hole simulation technology allows me to take every golfer in the field’s range of outcomes into consideration, along with what I project the competition’s lineups to look like. By simulating the lineups against each other tens of thousands of times, the best plays on the slate reveal themselves.
The players that appear most in the highest ROI lineups are the ones I want to build my portfolio around. Our sim tool is the core of my weekly DFS process and is something I highly recommend for those looking to take the next step in DFS. For a limited time, get 20% off any of our PGA Sims packages using promo code “BERRYMANSIMS“. Without further ado, below are the players I’ll be building around as my core plays for the John Deere Classic.
2024 John Deere Classic PGA DFS Core PlaysÂ
Davis Thompson – $9,600
Thompson was featured in this article last week and pulled through with a very impressive second-place finish. I’m going back to the well this week and riding the hot hand.
Over his last nine startsThompson has five top 21 finishes. These include back-to-back top-10 finishes in his last two starts, where he gained strokes on the field in every statistical category.
Over the last 24 tracked rounds, Thompson ranks third in this field in birdie-or-better percentage and sets up very nicely to compete yet again this week.
He is a rising star on the PGA Tour who may be in line for his first career win. I’ll be rostering him at a heavy clip again this week.
Keith Mitchell – $9,200
Mitchell is currently on one of the best ball-striking runs of his entire career, gaining strokes on approach in 12 straight events. Over this stretch, he has seven finishes inside the top 20 amongst some pretty talented fields.
Across his last 24 rounds, Mitchell also ranks eighth in this field in birdie or better percentage, fifth in strokes gained off the tee and 11th in proximity to the hole from the 125-to-150-yard bucket. He is undoubtedly one of the best players in this weak field, so getting him in the low $9,000 range on DraftKings this week is a steal.
Lee Hodges – $7,300
Hodges is another player on a very nice stretch of play over the last few months. He has made the cut in five of his last six, including three finishes inside the top 25.
Over this stretch, Hodges ranks eighth in this field in strokes gained on approach and 14th in proximity from that 125-to-150-yard approach bucket that will be a very popular range for players this week.
Hodges’ only top-5 finishes on tour have come in events where the winning score is -20 or better, which is what we’re projecting for this week. He is a strong value option in the low $7,000 price range.
GPP Flier
Jhonattan Vegas – $7,200
It’s been a pretty quiet season for Vegas to this point, who has failed to crack the top 20 through 12 starts in 2024. However, over the last couple of months, heh as built up some nice momentum. Over his last 4 starts, he has three finishes inside the top 27.
With top-25 rankings in this field over the last 24 rounds in strokes gained off the tee, on approach and birdie or better percentage, I believe he is peaking at the right time. Given the weaker field, I think he can surprise some people this week.
This isn’t a play I’d recommend for cash-game contests, but for lineups constructed to take down a large-field tournament, he is a viable pivot off the chalk options with a single-digit ownership projection.
These are a few of the key players who will make up my player pool for my 2024 John Deere Classic DFS lineups. I’ll favor them significantly when I build lineups using the PGA Sims. In addition, don’t forget to take advantage of the odds boosts sportsbooks are offering.
