As the NBA season tosses the ball in the air, it’s time to dive into the exciting world of NBA DFS. As usual, FanDuel and DraftKings have massive prize pools, so understanding how to build optimal lineups is crucial for maximizing your chances of success. Stokastic’s NBA DFS Sims are designed to streamline this process, and here we will guide you through how to use NBA Sims to maximize your NBA DFS strategy AND your ROI.
How to Use NBA DFS Sims: Expert Strategy Guide, Tips & Advice
Getting Started with the Contest Generator
The first step in building winning NBA DFS lineups is to utilize the Contest Generator. This feature allows you to create lineups tailored to the specific contests you plan to enter. Here’s how to make the most of it:
- Large-Field GPPs: If you’re entering a big tournament (like a marquee $15 GPP on DraftKings), select a pool size of 5,000. This size typically reflects the thousands of entries you’ll be competing against.
- Single Entry or Smaller Contests: For smaller contests, choose a pool size that matches your entry. For example, if you’re entering a single-entry contest with about 1,000 participants, select that number.
The Contest Archetype slider helps tailor your ownership settings based on the contest stakes. For high-stakes contests (like $1,500 buy-ins), choose the high stakes option. Conversely, if you’re playing in low-stakes contests (like 50-cent entries), select the low stakes setting.
Once you’ve made these selections, hit Generate Lineups to create a set of lineups that mirrors the NBA DFS ownership projections and player makeup of your chosen contest.
Simulating Your Lineups
After generating lineups, it’s time to simulate them using Stokastic’s powerful tools:
- Select the Correct Site: Ensure you choose either DraftKings or FanDuel, depending on where you’re playing.
- Choose the Right Slate: Specify if you’re simulating for the main slate, late-night slate or a single game (Showdown).
- Percentage to First: This metric significantly impacts how your lineups are simulated. Calculate it by dividing the prize amount for first place by the total prize pool. For instance, if the first-place prize is $100,000 in a $400,000 pool, that’s 25%.
If you prefer to use your own NBA DFS projections, you can upload a CSV file with three columns: Player name, projected points and ownership. This allows for even more customization based on your insights.
You can also manually adjust individual player projections within Stokastic’s tools. For example, if you believe Anthony Davis should score more than his projected fantasy points, simply edit his projection directly.
You can also adjust a player’s minutes and fantasy points per minute. If you think Davis will play more than the projected 35 minutes, increase that number to reflect your expectations. Just remember to adjust other players’ minutes accordingly to keep projections accurate.
Running the Simulation
Once you’ve made all necessary adjustments, you’re ready to run the contest simulation. Hit the simulation button, and watch as the slate is played out 40,000 times, accounting for various scenarios like player performance, game blowouts and injury impacts.
Analyzing Simulated Results
After the simulation concludes, you’ll see results ranked by simulated ROI. This metric indicates which lineups are projected to be the most profitable. Here are some of the other metrics you should focus on:
- Fantasy Point Projection: Shows the expected total points each lineup will score.
- Ownership Sum: This metric indicates the total expected ownership of the players in a lineup.
- Win Percentage and Cash Percentage: These stats show how often a lineup wins and how often it at least caches in a GPP.
Choose your top lineups based on the simulated ROI (or, if you prefer, win, cash or top 10%). If you’re entering multiple lineups, you can easily select 20, 50, 150 or even 300 based on your contest entry strategy. Once selected, you can export these lineups directly to your chosen platform.
Final Thoughts on How to Use NBA DFS Sims Strategy
Stokastic’s NBA DFS Sims tools provide a comprehensive suite for building optimized lineups. By understanding how to leverage these features, you can enhance your NBA DFS strategy and improve your results in your favorite contests.
